New drugs race old patent cliffs and price cuts
- The Growth Portfolio produced $7.6 billion in Q2 2026 revenue and now drives nearly 60% of total sales.
- Cobenfy and Qvantig are growing fast, with Qvantig hitting $261 million in Q2 and annualizing over $1 billion.
- Legacy drugs are shrinking fast, with Revlimid sales dropping as generic competition expands.
- Key pipeline trial readouts for Milvexian and Cobenfy are delayed into early 2027, pushing back future growth data.
- Finn's overall view is balanced, noting that new launches help but pricing pressure and patent cliffs remain heavy burdens on the stock.
A hard handoff to newer drugs
Bristol-Myers Squibb is in a transition. Older blockbusters are losing protection, while newer drugs are trying to fill the hole. In Q2 2026, the Growth Portfolio reached $7.6 billion and hit nearly 60% of total revenue.
The bull case is that the handoff is working. Opdivo Qvantig reached $261 million in Q2, helping defend market share against future biosimilars. Cobenfy, Camzyos, and Reblozyl keep growing, offsetting the steep drop in older drugs like Revlimid.
The bear case points to pipeline delays and shrinking profit margins. Key trial results for Milvexian and Cobenfy were pushed into early 2027. Eliquis revenue was $4.5 billion in Q2, but the company expects a massive drop in 2027 due to pricing changes and exclusivity loss.
The next test is simple to state but hard to pass. The company must prove its new products can grow fast enough to beat lower prices, lower margins, and late-decade patent cliffs.
Patents turn science into sales
Bristol-Myers Squibb makes money by selling prescription drugs that are protected by patents. These drugs treat serious diseases in oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular disease, and neuroscience.
The model can be very profitable while patents last. It can also break quickly when a top drug loses exclusivity, which means cheaper generic or biosimilar versions can enter the market. That is already happening with Revlimid and Pomalyst.
Management is trying to make the company leaner at the same time. Its strategic productivity initiative targets $2 billion in cost savings by the end of 2027, using shorter research cycle times, artificial intelligence, and commercial efficiencies.
BMY also buys growth when it needs to. Recent deals added Karuna in neuroscience, RayzeBio in radiopharmaceuticals, and Mirati in targeted oncology. Those deals raise the stakes for launch execution and pipeline data.
Where the drug mix is shifting
Eliquis
Eliquis is a major blood thinner and reported $4.5 billion in Q2 2026 revenue. The risk is future price pressure, as management expects a massive revenue step-down in 2027.
Opdivo and Opdivo Qvantig
Opdivo is a large cancer immunotherapy franchise. BMY is successfully shifting patients toward the under-the-skin version called Opdivo Qvantig, which reached 15% share in the U.S. in Q2 2026.
Cobenfy
Cobenfy is BMY's key new neuroscience launch for schizophrenia. The company is also testing it in Alzheimer's psychosis, though those trials were delayed into 2027.
Camzyos
Camzyos treats obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, a heart condition that can block blood flow. It continues to see strong growth as it reaches more patients globally.
Reblozyl
Reblozyl treats anemia tied to certain blood disorders. It has seen solid uptake in first-line MDS-associated anemia.
Breyanzi
Breyanzi is a cell therapy for certain blood cancers. It posted 41% growth in Q2 2026, making it an important but still specialized growth product.
Revlimid and Pomalyst
These legacy blood cancer drugs are now under heavy generic pressure. Generic erosion continues to drag down overall revenue for the older portfolio.
Mostly a U.S. drug company
The mix uses Q1 2026 revenue by geography: $7.8 billion from the United States and $3.4 billion from international markets. U.S. results are more exposed to Medicare and IRA price pressure.
What could break the bridge
Eliquis price reset
High impact · High oddsEliquis is a cash cow right now, growing 21% to $4.5 billion in Q2 2026. However, management expects a massive $1.5 billion to $2 billion revenue step-down in 2027 due to pricing and exclusivity changes. Medicare price setting also puts direct pressure on this product.
Pipeline readout risk
High impact · Medium oddsPipeline delays push significant upside value realization into 2027. Critical trial results for Milvexian and Cobenfy ADEPT shifted to early 2027. Bad data would shrink the future growth bridge.
Opdivo defense may not hold
Medium impact · Medium oddsOpdivo remains a major cancer franchise. The company is pushing conversion to Opdivo Qvantig, reaching 15% market share in the U.S., targeting up to 40%. The open question is if Qvantig can protect market share against future biosimilars.
Legacy cliff gets steeper
High impact · High oddsRevlimid fell sharply in early 2026 as generic lenalidomide competition widened in the U.S., and Pomalyst is also under pressure from generic entry. If these declines move faster than the Growth Portfolio can rise, total revenue will fall.
More government price setting
Medium impact · High oddsThe portfolio is facing more U.S. government price setting. Eliquis is affected in 2026, Pomalyst in 2027, and Orencia was selected for negotiation beginning in 2028. More selected drugs could weigh heavily on future margins.
In one breath
Why is Bristol-Myers Squibb under pressure?
Several older drugs are losing exclusivity, which lets cheaper rivals take share. At the same time, U.S. pricing pressure is rising for drugs like Eliquis, Pomalyst, and Orencia.
What is the main bull case for BMY?
The bull case is that newer drugs can outgrow the legacy decline. The Growth Portfolio now makes up nearly 60% of total revenue, led by products like Cobenfy, Camzyos, and Reblozyl.
Why does Eliquis matter so much?
Eliquis is a massive blood thinner franchise that brought in $4.5 billion in Q2 2026. A large revenue drop expected in 2027 is one of the clearest near-term risks for BMY.
What is Opdivo Qvantig?
Opdivo Qvantig is a subcutaneous version of Opdivo, meaning it is given under the skin instead of by IV infusion. BMY hopes it can make the franchise harder to displace as future competition rises.
