High returns and tax cuts meet a credit test
- Management expects return on equity to surpass 24% this year.
- The National Reconstruction Plan will gradually reduce the corporate tax rate to 23% by 2029.
- Expanded mortgage subsidies could help absorb housing inventory and lift loan growth.
- Credit risk remains a focus with unemployment still high at 9.3%.
- The Getnet payments unit faces margin pressure from increased industry competition.
Strong profits meet new growth catalysts
Banco Santander-Chile is showing the upside of a falling-rate cycle and strong efficiency. Its funding costs moved down faster than many loan yields, so net interest margin improved. Costs also stayed tight. This combination led management to expect a return on average equity above 24% for 2026.
New government policy adds to the bull case. The National Reconstruction Plan passed Congress, bringing a corporate tax reduction from 27% to 23% between 2027 and 2029. The government also expanded the FOGAES state guarantee for first home purchases. That should help clear housing inventory and reaccelerate mortgage loan growth to the mid-single digits.
The bear case revolves around credit quality and fee margins. Total non-performing loans ticked up to 3.3% of total loans in 2025. While commercial non-performing loans are improving, consumer and mortgage credit remain stressed because unemployment in Chile was 9.3% in the first half of 2026. The Getnet payments business is also seeing lower margins due to tight competition.
A digital bank with branches
BSAC makes money like a classic bank. It takes deposits and other funding, lends to people and companies, and earns the spread between what it earns on loans and what it pays for funding. It also earns fees from cards, accounts, mutual funds, merchant acquiring, guarantees, payments, insurance brokerage, and treasury services.
The bank is trying to make that old model cheaper and more digital. Management calls the strategy a digital bank with branches. After the Gravity project, the bank said it was operating 100% on the cloud. That should help client growth, product use, and cost control if the systems keep working well.
Retail banking is the center of gravity. It holds most of the loans and produces most of the fee income. Middle-market and SME clients add lending and payment needs. Corporate Investment Banking is more selective, with less balance sheet lending and more focus on selling loans after origination.
Where it can break is simple. Chile is almost the whole story. If unemployment stays near 9.3%, households miss payments. If companies wait to invest, loan growth stays weak. If competitors squeeze merchant acquiring fees, card revenue takes a direct hit.
Mortgages, cards, merchants, funds
Retail loans and credit cards
Consumer loans grew 2.5% in 2025 even as the wider retail loan book fell. Cards also helped fees, with card service fees up 12.8% in 2025.
Residential mortgages
Mortgages are a large part of the loan book and are often long dated. Expanded state subsidies aim to help this segment grow again.
Middle-market and SME banking
This business lends to smaller and mid-sized companies and sells payment, guarantee, and office banking services. Middle-market loans rose 2.2% in 2025.
Corporate Investment Banking
CIB serves large companies with loans, treasury, transaction banking, and advisory. Loans fell 7.1% in 2025 as the unit kept using an originate and distribute model.
Getnet merchant acquiring
Getnet helps merchants accept card payments. BSAC sold 49.99% of Getnet Chile in January 2026. The unit is now facing tighter margins from competition.
Mutual funds and wealth products
Mutual fund brokerage fees rose 21.7% in 2025. This business benefits when clients invest more through the bank instead of using only deposits.
Retail carries the loan book
Mix uses loans and accounts receivable from customers and interbank loans by reportable segment at December 31, 2025. Retail is the largest exposure, while Other is small and includes interbank loans.
What could break the thesis
Unemployment keeps borrowers stressed
High impact · Medium oddsThe bank says consumer and residential mortgage risk rose because unemployment stayed high at 9.3% in early 2026. If jobs do not recover, provisions can eat the benefit from better margins.
Margin squeeze in payments
Medium impact · High oddsThe Getnet payments business is facing increased industry competition. Management noted this is forcing the bank to reduce margins on fees, especially in the mass market and retail spaces.
Loan growth does not restart
Medium impact · Medium oddsTotal loans fell 0.9% in 2025. CIB loans fell because the bank is originating and selling some loans, while mortgages were also weak. If new mortgage subsidies do not lift demand, earnings growth may rely too much on margins.
Card fee cap returns
Medium impact · Medium oddsThe second interchange fee cap cut is suspended, but it is not gone. Management estimates that if it takes effect, card fee revenue could face a significant negative impact of Ch$22 billion.
Rate and inflation help fades
Medium impact · Medium oddsThe 2025 margin lift came from lower funding costs and the bank's liability base repricing faster than assets. If rates move the wrong way, or if the UF inflation gap turns less favorable, net interest income can weaken.
In one breath
What does Banco Santander-Chile do?
It is a Chilean bank that serves households, SMEs, middle-market firms, large companies, and wealth clients. It earns money from lending spreads, card and account fees, merchant acquiring, mutual funds, treasury services, and other banking products.
Why did BSAC loans shrink in 2025?
Total loans fell 0.9% in 2025. The main reasons were weaker residential mortgage loans and a smaller CIB loan book, where the bank has been originating some loans and then selling them.
What is Getnet, and why does it matter?
Getnet is BSAC's merchant acquiring business, which helps stores and other sellers accept card payments. It matters because Getnet fees rose 38.8% in 2025 and the bank sold 49.99% of the unit in January 2026 while keeping operating ties.
What is the main risk for BSAC stock?
The biggest watch item is credit quality tied to Chile's labor market. Commercial credit improved, but consumer and mortgage non-performing loans worsened because unemployment stayed high at 9.3% in early 2026.
