Finn
BSY Software · Infrastructure software · Recurring revenue · AI tools · Thesis updated August 11, 2026

Steady infrastructure software, with AI upside arriving later

01 Running thesis

Strong core, patient upside

Bentley provides software tied to a real world need: more infrastructure work than engineers can easily handle. Customers use its tools to design and manage assets like roads, bridges, plants, mines, and utilities. The bull case is simple. Most revenue repeats, customers tend to stay and spend more, and Q2 2026 annualized recurring revenue grew 12 percent in constant currency with net revenue retention at 109 percent.

The best growth stories inside the company are specific. Power Line Systems is benefiting from grid modernization and data center electrification. Seequent is doing well in geoprofessional software, helped by mining and critical minerals demand.

The harder part is timing and execution. Artificial intelligence and API based usage could become valuable new revenue pools, but management says monetization starts in 2027. Services growth also slowed sequentially to 9.4 percent in the second quarter, raising questions about meeting its full year target. This is a quality compounder story, but the price must make sense.

Aug 2026Q2 2026 results showed ARR growth accelerating to 12 percent. Management detailed an open AI ecosystem strategy with monetization beginning in 2027, though services growth slowed sequentially to 9.4 percent.
May 2026Q1 2026 confirmed the core thesis. ARR grew 11.5 percent in constant currency, net revenue retention was 109 percent, and services grew 29.9 percent, giving the first clear proof of the expected services rebound.
Feb 2026Management gave a clearer AI and Asset Analytics story, including a $50 million asset consumption revenue run rate in 2025. It also guided for 15 percent to 20 percent constant currency services growth in 2026.
Nov 2025Q3 2025 showed steady subscription execution and a services business that stopped shrinking for the quarter. Recurring revenue mix and net retention stayed strong.
Aug 2025Q2 2025 kept the subscription thesis intact, with ARR growth at 11.5 percent in constant currency and net revenue retention at 109 percent. Management added the engineering capacity gap as a demand driver.
May 2025Management said recurring revenue reached 92 percent of total and that most E365 ARR had negotiated annual floors and ceilings. It also said China exposure had fallen to about 2.5 percent of revenue.
02 Business model

Subscriptions fund the machine

Bentley makes most of its money from subscriptions. In Q2 2026, recurring subscription revenues made up 92 percent of total revenue. That gives the company more visibility than a software seller that has to close large one time license deals each quarter.

The company also sells some perpetual licenses and services. Perpetual licenses are a shrinking piece of the mix. Services growth slowed to 9.4 percent in Q2 2026, down from 29.9 percent in the first quarter, leaving a question mark on the 15 percent to 20 percent full year target.

Bentley is shifting more customers toward Enterprise 365, a consumption model where customers pay based on use. Much of this revenue has multi year negotiated floors and ceilings. Customers can use more software, but the bill has agreed guardrails. That can make growth smoother than pure usage based models.

The long term swing factor is API consumption. Bentley is building an open ecosystem to interface with third party large language models. APIs let a customer plug Bentley tools into its own workflows. If that becomes common, usage could grow beyond the old seat based model.

03 Product portfolio

Tools for infrastructure work

Cash cow

Bentley Open Applications

These are core design and engineering applications used by infrastructure teams. They are a primary driver of subscription growth.

Growth engine

Seequent

Seequent serves geoprofessional work, including subsurface data and mining. It is a standout performer helped by demand for critical minerals.

Growth engine

Power Line Systems

Power Line Systems supports electric grid infrastructure and has grown significantly overseas, driven by grid modernization and data center power needs.

Steady

Bentley Infrastructure Cloud

This cloud platform helps teams manage engineering data and digital twins, which are live digital models of physical assets.

Growth engine

Virtuoso

Virtuoso targets small and medium-sized businesses with easier buying and onboarding. It helps drive new account acquisition.

Option

Bentley Asset Analytics

Asset Analytics uses artificial intelligence to inspect and assess infrastructure condition. The business reached a $50 million run rate in 2025.

04 Business segments

One segment, three revenue streams

Subscriptions92%modest
Perpetual licenses2%declining
Services6%modest

Bentley reports one business segment, software and related services, but discloses revenue by type. The mix below is an estimate based on Q2 2026 recurring revenue data.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Subscription growth slows

High impact · Medium odds

The main thesis depends on customers renewing and expanding. Q2 2026 net revenue retention was 109 percent, which means existing customers spent more than the prior year after churn. If that slips, the recurring revenue story weakens quickly.

We watchWatch constant currency ARR growth and net revenue retention, especially if ARR growth falls below double digits.

Services rebound fades

Medium impact · Medium odds

Services grew 29.9 percent in Q1 2026 but slowed to 9.4 percent in Q2 2026. The risk is that the first quarter was a short burst rather than a lasting turnaround.

We watchWatch quarterly services growth against management's 15 percent to 20 percent constant currency growth guide for 2026.

AI revenue arrives late

Medium impact · Medium odds

Bentley has a clear plan for artificial intelligence, especially around automated design workflows and API consumption starting in 2027. If customers like the features but do not pay much more, the upside takes longer to show up.

We watchWatch concrete pricing for API based automated workflows rolling out in 2027.

China stays difficult

Low impact · Medium odds

China is a smaller exposure now, about 2 percent of ARR, but it remains a real friction point. Management has cited geopolitical challenges and obstacles to cloud-deployed software.

We watchWatch China ARR or revenue commentary, plus any sign that cloud restrictions spread to other APAC markets.

AI mistakes create liability

Medium impact · Low odds

Bentley names artificial intelligence as a risk in its filings. If AI tools produce bad outputs, misuse customer data, or create legal questions, the company could face reputational harm.

We watchWatch new AI risk language in filings or customer disputes tied to AI outputs.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Bentley Systems actually do?

Bentley makes software for infrastructure engineering. Its tools help design, build, and monitor assets like roads, bridges, utilities, mines, and industrial sites.

Why is recurring revenue important for BSY?

Recurring revenue makes the business more predictable because customers pay again each year or through usage-based contracts. In Q2 2026, recurring subscriptions were 92 percent of total revenue.

Is AI already a big profit driver for Bentley?

Not yet. Asset Analytics has reached a $50 million revenue run rate, but management plans to start broader AI API monetization in 2027.

What metric matters most for Bentley?

Annualized recurring revenue growth is the cleanest health check because it shows the yearly run rate. Net revenue retention is also important because it shows whether existing customers are spending more over time.

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