Finn
CDE Precious metals · Gold · Silver · North America · Thesis updated August 11, 2026

Record cash flow funds active buybacks and Canadian growth

01 Running thesis

A larger miner with real cash

Coeur has transformed from a miner fixing its balance sheet into a cash-generating machine. In Q2 2026, the company reported record quarterly revenue above $1 billion and generated nearly $400 million in free cash flow, pushing its cash balance past $1 billion for the first time.

The bull case rests on management delivering exceptional financial results from an enhanced portfolio. Strong operational performance at legacy sites, especially Rochester, has allowed the company to return capital to shareholders through active stock buybacks and its first dividend in 30 years.

The bear case points to near-term execution risks at the newly acquired Canadian assets. Rainy River has faced underground contractor challenges, and New Afton is managing slow cave propagation. As a result, management has pushed out ramp-up timelines and lowered 2026 volume guidance for both sites. U.S. cash taxes will also step up as past operating losses deplete.

Finn's overall score remains positive but grounded. Growth metrics benefit from the larger asset base, but financial health and performance still rely on integrating the Canadian mines, executing at Rochester, and favorable metal prices.

Aug 2026Q2 2026 results showed record revenue passing $1 billion and nearly $400 million in free cash flow. The company also recalibrated volume guidance for the Canadian assets due to operational delays.
May 2026Management said buyback blackouts tied to the New Gold transaction and Q1 results had lifted. The company also said Wharf's rebuilt crushing circuit was back up and running.
May 2026Coeur's 10-Q confirmed that New Gold closed in Q1 2026, adding New Afton, Rainy River, and copper sales. The filing also confirmed the $750 million buyback plan and the new $0.02 semiannual dividend.
Feb 2026Q4 2025 results showed record cash generation and a net cash position. Management also pointed to longer mine lives at Wharf and Palmarejo.
Feb 2026The 2025 10-K added the pending New Gold deal and confirmed major debt reduction. It also flagged a Wharf crusher fire, which created a near-term operating risk at the time.
Oct 2025Management raised full-year 2025 expectations to more than $1 billion of EBITDA and more than $550 million of free cash flow. Rochester timing and future U.S. taxes remained watch items.
Oct 2025Q3 2025 free cash flow reached a record $189 million and net leverage fell to 0.1x. Coeur also started buying back stock under its prior authorization.
02 Business model

Dig metal, sell metal

Coeur makes money by mining ore, processing it, and selling gold, silver, and copper into commodity markets. It owns seven active North American operations: New Afton, Rainy River, Las Chispas, Palmarejo, Rochester, Kensington, and Wharf. It also owns Silvertip, a Canadian exploration project.

This is a direct commodity business. When metal prices rise, more revenue can drop to cash flow because many mine costs are fixed or slow to move. The recent spike in precious metal prices was a major driver behind the company reaching record revenue in the second quarter of 2026.

The same model cuts the other way. Coeur no longer uses hedging contracts to lock in prices, meaning it is fully exposed to market swings. A lower gold or silver price can hit revenue fast, while labor, fuel, maintenance, royalties, and taxes may not fall as quickly.

Mine quality and uptime are just as important as price. Rochester recently proved this by crushing a record 6.8 million metric tons in Q2. But if contractor issues persist at Rainy River or cave growth stalls at New Afton, the cash flow story can cool quickly.

03 Product portfolio

Gold first, silver close behind

Cash cow

Gold

Gold is Coeur's largest metal by sales. It made up 56% of Q1 2026 sales revenue and remains the main driver at Rainy River, Kensington, Wharf, and parts of the rest of the portfolio.

Growth engine

Silver

Silver has become a bigger part of the story. It was 42% of Q1 2026 sales revenue, helped by Las Chispas, Palmarejo, and Rochester.

Growth engine

Copper

Copper entered the active portfolio with New Afton after the New Gold deal closed. The company expects to produce 50 million to 65 million pounds of copper in 2026.

Option

Silvertip

Silvertip is not a producing mine today. It is a Canadian exploration project that could add future critical minerals exposure if studies support development.

04 Business segments

Seven mines, uneven mix

New Afton4%growing fast
Rainy River11%growing fast
Las Chispas23%modest
Palmarejo22%flat
Rochester21%modest
Kensington13%declining
Wharf6%declining

The segment mix uses Q1 2026 metal sales by mine from Coeur's latest 10-Q. New Afton and Rainy River only include 11 days after the New Gold transaction closed, so this mix is not a normal full-quarter run rate.

05 Risk factors

What could break the thesis

Metal prices fall

High impact · Medium odds

Coeur sells gold, silver, and copper at market prices. Its hedging program has ended, so lower prices would flow into revenue and cash flow quickly. Gold and silver still drive the majority of financial results.

We watchTrack realized gold, silver, and copper prices versus Coeur's 2026 guidance assumptions.

Canadian integration stumbles

Medium impact · Medium odds

The Canadian assets are facing near-term execution risks. Rainy River is dealing with underground contractor challenges, and New Afton is managing slow cave propagation. Management lowered 2026 volume guidance for both sites due to these delays.

We watchWatch underground mining rates at Rainy River and cave growth progress at New Afton.

Rochester misses the ramp

Medium impact · Low odds

Rochester is a large silver-gold mine in Nevada. While the site crushed a record 6.8 million metric tons in Q2 2026, it still needs to hit specific crush size targets to improve recovery and maintain strong output.

We watchWatch Rochester tonnes placed, grades, and progress toward the 5/8 inch P80 crush target.

Taxes absorb more cash

Medium impact · High odds

Coeur has drawn down its U.S. net operating losses to $530 million and expects to pay some federal cash taxes in the U.S. in 2026. Mexico is also a heavy tax area, accounting for an estimated 80% of total tax liability.

We watchWatch cash income and mining taxes, especially against the 2026 guidance range.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Coeur Mining produce?

Coeur produces gold, silver, and copper. Gold and silver are still the core metals, while copper became active after the New Gold acquisition added New Afton.

Why did Coeur buy New Gold?

The deal added two Canadian mines, New Afton and Rainy River. It made Coeur a larger North American producer and added copper to the portfolio.

Does Coeur Mining pay a dividend?

Yes. The company initiated its first dividend in 30 years in 2026, adopting a policy of $0.02 per share paid semiannually.

What is the biggest near-term catalyst for CDE?

Investors are closely watching the $750 million share repurchase program and the underground production ramp at the newly acquired Rainy River and New Afton mines.

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