Finn
CL Consumer Staples · Global brands · Pet nutrition · Dividend defensive · Thesis updated August 5, 2026

Margins expand while North America volume drops

01 Running thesis

Emerging markets lift the boat

Colgate-Palmolive operates a defensive business model. People still brush their teeth, wash dishes, buy soap, and feed their pets regardless of the economic cycle. The company also sells in many countries, which means a weak market in one region does not dictate the entire story.

The narrative shifted positively in Q2 2026 regarding profitability. Gross margins expanded nicely driven by pricing and savings initiatives, which helped offset the raw material headwinds that concerned investors earlier in the year. Strong execution in emerging markets like India, Brazil, Mexico, and China provided solid growth.

The main problem remains North America. Volume in the region dropped 3.9% in the second quarter. Management plans targeted surgical actions by category and channel in the second half of the year to fix this. The bear case argues that competitive intensity in the U.S. will require heavy promotional spending, which could threaten the recent gross margin gains.

Finn's view is balanced. Colgate has strong brands and Hill's remains a reliable growth engine. However, the North American business needs fixing, and the skin health business took a large impairment in 2025. Investors are waiting to see if management can return the U.S. business to volume growth.

Jul 2026Q2 2026 showed gross margin expansion and strong emerging market growth, but this was offset by a 3.9% volume decline in North America.
May 2026Q1 2026 showed a better volume-led sales rebound, helped by Asia Pacific and Latin America. The view moved more cautious because management added roughly $300 million of raw materials and logistics pressure for the year.
Feb 2026The 2025 10-K showed organic sales growth slowed to 1.4%, and non-GAAP gross margin contracted by 50 basis points. The company recorded a $919 million pre-tax impairment tied to skin health.
Oct 2025The Q3 2025 filing did not add meaningful new business detail and said risk factors had not materially changed.
Aug 2025The Q2 2025 filing was brief and did not include new Management's Discussion and Analysis. No material risk factor change was reported.
Apr 2025The Q1 2025 filing did not provide enough accessible operating detail to change the view. The company reported no material risk factor changes from the prior annual report.
Feb 2025The initial thesis was built from the 2024 10-K. Colgate was framed as a defensive global brand company with two main segments, but with real currency, retail, and competitive risks.
02 Business model

Small items, huge reach

Colgate makes money by selling branded consumer products through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, dental professionals, veterinarians, eCommerce, and some direct channels. Walmart accounted for 11% of 2024 sales, meaning large retailers hold real bargaining power.

The core engine is Oral, Personal and Home Care. Oral Care alone was 44% of 2025 net sales. This category is useful because toothpaste and toothbrushes are repeat purchases, and Colgate owns leading global brands.

Hill's Pet Nutrition is the second engine. It sells Science Diet for general wellness and Prescription Diet for medical pet needs. Prescription Diet also gives the company a link to veterinarians, which makes the business less like a normal grocery aisle product.

The model can struggle when costs jump faster than prices. Oil-linked resins, packaging, and logistics can squeeze gross margins. Colgate responds with pricing, revenue growth management, and cost efficiency programs. The risk is that these moves can hurt volume if shoppers push back.

03 Product portfolio

Toothpaste first, pets second

Cash cow

Oral Care

This includes Colgate, elmex, meridol, and Tom's of Maine. Oral Care was 44% of 2025 net sales and forms the center of the company.

Growth engine

Hill's Pet Nutrition

Hill's Science Diet and Hill's Prescription Diet made up 23% of 2025 net sales. The business is a durable growth engine that continues to take market share.

Steady

Personal Care

This includes Palmolive, Softsoap, Irish Spring, EltaMD, and Filorga. Personal Care was 17% of 2025 net sales.

Steady

Home Care

This includes Palmolive dish liquids, Fabuloso, and Ajax. Home Care was 16% of 2025 net sales and adds scale in household repeat purchases.

Option

Skin health

EltaMD and Filorga were meant to add higher growth personal care exposure. Filorga is an open question after a massive pre-tax impairment tied mainly to weaker performance in China.

04 Business segments

Two reporting segments

Oral, Personal and Home Care77%modest
Hill's Pet Nutrition23%modest

The segment mix uses fiscal 2025 net sales. Oral, Personal and Home Care was about $15.8 billion, and Hill's Pet Nutrition was about $4.6 billion. About two-thirds of total sales come from outside the U.S.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

North America stays weak

High impact · High odds

North America volumes declined 3.9% in Q2 2026. Management plans targeted surgical actions to fix this. If the reset fails, the company may keep losing volume or spend much more on promotions to defend its market share.

We watchNorth America volume and mix, couponing levels, and management comments on strategy adjustments.

Cost inflation eats the margin

High impact · Medium odds

While Q2 margins were strong, raw materials and logistics pressures persist. Oil-linked resins, packaging, and freight can move fast. If costs rise further, Colgate might have to choose between lower margins and price increases that slow volume.

We watchGross margin, oil-linked resin costs, and freight costs.

Retailers gain more power

Medium impact · High odds

Colgate sells through large retailers, wholesalers, and online channels. Walmart alone was 11% of 2024 sales. Big retailers can push for lower prices, more trade spending, or different shelf space.

We watchTrade spending, Walmart concentration, eCommerce pricing, and signs of shelf share loss.

Global exposure cuts both ways

Medium impact · Medium odds

Roughly two-thirds of sales come from outside the U.S., and emerging markets are a huge part of net sales. This gives Colgate growth chances, but it also adds currency, trade, and political risk. A strong U.S. dollar can reduce reported sales and profit.

We watchForeign exchange impact on net sales, emerging market volume, and changes in trade policy.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Colgate-Palmolive actually sell?

It sells toothpaste, toothbrushes, soaps, dish liquids, cleaners, skin care, and Hill's pet food. Oral Care is the biggest product group, at 44% of 2025 net sales.

Why is Hill's Pet Nutrition important to Colgate?

Hill's gives Colgate a pet health business with premium and veterinary-linked products. It was 23% of 2025 net sales and remains a very clear growth engine.

What changed in Q2 2026?

Margins expanded thanks to pricing and cost savings, but North American volumes fell 3.9%. Emerging markets and the Hill's pet division carried the growth.

What is the biggest risk for Colgate right now?

The biggest near-term risk is fixing the North American business without destroying margins. If competitors push hard on promotions, Colgate will have to spend more to defend its share.

Get started with Finn today