Better wells and new gas, but tax clouds remain
- Ecopetrol earns most of its money from oil and gas, especially exploration, production, transport, and refining.
- Recent offshore discoveries like Sandia-1 and strong tests at Copa Sul-1 expand the natural gas growth story.
- A 76-day blockade in the Meta department temporarily deferred up to 23,000 barrels per day, highlighting local operational risks.
- The biggest overhang is DIAN’s retroactive COP 9.4-9.6 trillion tax claim, now on a court path that may last 3 to 6 years.
- ISA gives the group steadier power transmission cash flow, but Brazil regulation changes can still cut into results.
- Closing the Brava Energia tender offer in Brazil is expected to add 42,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to production.
Good execution, hard local questions
The bull case starts with operations. Ecopetrol is finding more gas and oil. The new Sandia-1 discovery confirms Caribbean offshore gas potential, and Copa Sul-1 tested at strong rates. In the United States, an accelerated seven-well campaign in the Permian basin is expected to add 4,000 to 5,000 barrels per day.
The growth plan looks outside Colombia as well. Ecopetrol is nearing the close of its Brava Energia acquisition in Brazil. If the deal finalizes in the third quarter of 2026, it should immediately add about 42,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to the company.
The bear case remains serious. DIAN, Colombia’s tax authority, is seeking COP 9.4-9.6 trillion for 2022-2024 fuel import VAT, penalties, and interest. Ecopetrol says the risk of losing is very low, but the court phase may take 3 to 6 years. Operations are also exposed to local disruptions. A recent 76-day blockade in the Meta department deferred up to 23,000 barrels per day of production before lifting.
Finn’s overall view is middle of the road. Ecopetrol is performing well operationally, but the stock still has to carry oil price swings, political and tax risks, physical blockades, and a valuation that reflects these ongoing challenges.
Barrels, pipes, refineries, and wires
Ecopetrol is an integrated energy company. It finds and produces crude oil and natural gas, moves hydrocarbons through pipelines, turns crude into fuels and petrochemicals, and owns ISA, which runs power transmission and toll road concessions in Latin America.
The group has four main revenue sources: sales of crude oil and natural gas, hydrocarbon transport services, sales of refined products and biofuels, and energy transmission plus toll road concessions. That matters because oil still drives the cycle, while ISA helps smooth the ride.
The model works when Ecopetrol keeps fields producing, replaces reserves, runs refineries well, and earns regulated or contracted fees from transport and transmission assets. It breaks when Brent falls, local taxes rise, courts freeze cash, pipelines are blocked, or weather cuts production and demand patterns.
What Ecopetrol sells
Crude oil
Crude oil is the core profit engine. It also makes Ecopetrol highly exposed to Brent prices and export taxes.
Natural gas
Gas is the main transition fuel and supply gap answer. Sirius, Orca, Sandia-1, Copoazú-1, and imported LNG plans are central to this push.
Refined fuels
Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, and other products come mainly from Barrancabermeja and Cartagena. Refining margins recently hit a record $29.8 per barrel.
Hydrocarbon transport
Pipelines and logistics move crude and products for Ecopetrol and third parties. This segment earns fees, but it is exposed to attacks, blockades, and volume changes.
Power transmission and toll roads
ISA gives Ecopetrol regulated infrastructure cash flow across Latin America. It helps diversify the group, but regulation in Brazil can still hit earnings.
Renewables and low-carbon fuels
Solar projects, wind developments, and sustainable aviation fuels are smaller today. They give Ecopetrol options if the energy mix shifts faster.
Oil still pays most bills
The mix uses 2025 EBITDA contribution from Ecopetrol’s 2025 results release. Exploration and Production led the group, while ISA made the company less dependent on oil but did not remove oil price risk.
What could go wrong
DIAN tax case
High impact · Medium oddsDIAN is seeking COP 9.4-9.6 trillion for 2022-2024 fuel import VAT, penalties, and interest. Ecopetrol says the risk of loss is very low, and the administrative phase is complete. The court phase may take 3 to 6 years, so the overhang can last even without a cash hit soon.
Oil price drops
High impact · Medium oddsEcopetrol’s highest-profit segment is still exploration and production. Lower Brent prices can cut revenue, earnings, and cash available for dividends and investment. Management has already discussed capital flexibility to protect production when prices weaken.
Colombia policy and fuel rules
High impact · Medium oddsNew export and stamp taxes can raise costs. Regulated fuel prices can change reported sales, receivables, and working capital. The fuel price stabilization fund (FEPC) remains a working capital drag pending policy action from the new government.
Blockades and infrastructure attacks
Medium impact · High oddsEcopetrol depends on fields, roads, power, ports, and pipelines staying open. A recent 76-day blockade in the Meta department deferred up to 23,000 barrels per day. These events cut production, lift logistics costs, and delay projects.
Gas project delays
Medium impact · Medium oddsThe long-term growth story leans on Sirius, Sandia-1, Copoazú-1, LNG import projects, and other gas supply plans. Offshore projects need permits, civil works, partners, contracts, and large capital budgets. A delay would make Colombia’s gas shortfall harder to solve.
In one breath
What does Ecopetrol do?
Ecopetrol produces oil and gas, transports hydrocarbons, refines crude into fuels, and owns ISA, a power transmission and toll road business. Most profit still comes from hydrocarbons.
Why is the DIAN tax claim important?
The claim is large, at COP 9.4-9.6 trillion, and covers fuel import VAT for 2022-2024. Ecopetrol says it has a very low risk of losing, but the court process may last 3 to 6 years.
Is Ecopetrol becoming a clean energy company?
Not yet. Renewables, wind, solar, LNG, and sustainable fuels are growing options, but oil, gas, pipelines, and refineries still drive the company.
What are the next catalysts for EC stock?
Watch the Brava Energia tender offer closing, Sandia-1 and Copoazú-1 testing, Sirius project progress, policy signals from the new Colombian government, and any DIAN court updates.
