A rare FLNG pure play, priced for proof
- Golar has exited legacy LNG shipping and is now a pure floating LNG, or FLNG, service company.
- Its main assets are Hilli, Gimi, and the Mark II FLNG now being converted for Argentina.
- Management recently signed a firm order for a fourth FLNG unit delivering in 2029 to expand capacity.
- Hilli and Mark II have 20-year Argentina charters tied to about $17 billion of EBITDA backlog before commodity upside.
- The bear case is simple: large projects, shipyards, pipelines, and commodity prices all have to cooperate.
The 2028 cash flow bet
Golar is a focused bet on floating LNG. These are floating plants that sit near a gas field, chill gas into LNG, and load it onto tankers. The company says it is the only proven provider of FLNG as a service, meaning customers can use Golar's plant without building their own.
The bull case is that Golar can roughly double operating FLNG capacity by 2030 and reach up to $1.5 billion of annual run-rate EBITDA. Hilli and Mark II now have 20-year charters in Argentina, with about $17 billion of total EBITDA backlog before commodity upside. Management also officially signed a firm order for a fourth FLNG unit delivering in 2029, locking in future capacity.
There is also a corporate catalyst. Golar started a formal strategic review in March 2026 and hired Goldman Sachs International as financial advisor. Possible outcomes include a sale, merger, asset divestiture, or a new structure. The goal is to close the gap between long-term contracted cash flow and the current market value.
The hard part is timing and cost. Hilli successfully finished its Cameroon contract but must go to Seatrium in Singapore, complete a planned $350 million refurbishment, and then start in Argentina. Mark II must be converted on budget for 2028. The stock already asks investors to believe in that step-up before all the cash is showing up.
Paid to liquefy stranded gas
Golar makes money by owning and operating FLNG units under long contracts. A gas owner gets a faster way to sell LNG. Golar gets fees, lease revenue, operating service revenue, and in some contracts, upside tied to energy prices.
The model works best when the customer has good gas, needs export capacity, and does not want to fund a full land-based LNG plant. Golar's standardized designs can be redeployed, which can lower capital risk across the life of a vessel.
This is still a capital-heavy business. The 2025 Form 20-F shows $1.18 billion of remaining MKII FLNG capital expenditure commitments and $319 million for Hilli redeployment commitments as of December 31, 2025. Adding the newly ordered fourth unit brings a $2.45 billion budget into the mix. That means financing access and project control matter as much as customer demand.
Golar's 2025 operating revenue was concentrated in FLNG. The FLNG segment produced $366.7 million of operating revenue, while Corporate and other produced $26.8 million. That concentration is the point of the strategy, but it also means one delayed vessel can move results.
The fleet is the company
FLNG Hilli
Hilli is a 2.4 mtpa FLNG unit that successfully completed its Cameroon contract in 2026. It is now in transit for a planned $350 million refurbishment before a 20-year redeployment in Argentina.
FLNG Gimi
Gimi is a 2.7 mtpa FLNG unit serving the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project offshore Senegal and Mauritania. It reached commercial operations in June 2025 and added a new long-term cash flow stream.
Mark II FLNG
Mark II is being converted from the Fuji donor vessel into a 3.5 mtpa FLNG unit. It is contracted for a 20-year Argentina charter expected to start in 2028.
Fourth FLNG unit
Management placed a firm order for a fourth FLNG unit at CIMC Raffles, expected to deliver in 2029. This extends the growth runway but adds a $2.45 billion capital commitment.
Macaw Energies
Macaw is Golar's onshore flare-to-LNG effort. It is smaller than the offshore FLNG fleet and carries its own gas quality risks in U.S. shale fields.
Almost all FLNG now
Mix is based on 2025 operating revenue in the 2025 Form 20-F. Golar no longer reports Shipping as a separate segment after exiting legacy shipping in 2025.
What could break the plan
Hilli refurbishment slip
High impact · Medium oddsHilli left Cameroon and must complete a planned $350 million refurbishment to meet SESA's delivery and technical requirements for Argentina. Any cost overrun or delay can push out the 2027 cash flow ramp.
Mark II conversion risk
High impact · Medium oddsMark II is the first use of Golar's MKII design and has an expected project cost of about $2.2 billion excluding financing costs. Large conversions can run late because of contractor delays, equipment shortages, and performance testing.
Vaca Muerta pipeline delay
High impact · Medium oddsThe Argentina plan needs dedicated pipeline capacity from Vaca Muerta to the LNG site. The EPC award lowers the risk, but the line still has to be built on time for Hilli and Mark II.
Commodity price exposure
Medium impact · High oddsGolar's results are exposed to Brent crude and TTF gas prices. The 2025 filing says prior TTF swaps matured at the end of 2024 and no new TTF positions were entered during 2025, leaving more open upside and downside.
Fourth unit cost execution
Medium impact · Medium oddsThe company ordered a fourth FLNG unit, but long lead item inflation pushed the capital budget to $2.45 billion. Golar must fund this build and manage shipyard delays while securing a customer contract.
In one breath
What does Golar LNG actually do?
Golar owns and operates floating LNG plants. These vessels sit near gas fields, turn natural gas into LNG, and help customers sell that LNG into global markets.
Why is Argentina important for Golar?
Argentina is the next big growth leg. Hilli and Mark II both have 20-year charters tied to the Vaca Muerta gas basin, with about $17 billion of EBITDA backlog before commodity upside.
Is Golar still an LNG shipping company?
No. Golar sold its last LNG carrier in March 2025 and no longer reports Shipping as a separate segment. The company is now mainly an FLNG infrastructure business.
What are the next catalysts for GLNG?
The main items are the outcome of the strategic review, Argentina spot market allocations, and progress on the Vaca Muerta pipeline and newly ordered fourth FLNG unit.
Sources and research notes
This page combines Finn's company research with public filings and other cited materials. The thesis is reviewed when material company information changes; Finn Scores use the latest available scoring data.
- Thesis reviewed
- August 23, 2026
- Score data
- September 27, 2026
- Reviewed by
- Shivam Bharuka
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