Finn
HAL Energy Services · Oilfield services · Global energy · Shareholder returns · Thesis updated July 27, 2026

International growth offsets a steady North American market

01 Running thesis

A stabilizing cycle

Halliburton's outlook is improving as key markets stabilize. Q2 2026 results showed North American revenue of $2.3 billion, which was flat year over year. This marks an improvement from the declines seen earlier in the year. Meanwhile, international operations generated $3.4 billion in revenue, a 6% increase from the prior year.

The bull case is progressing to plan. The international business is accelerating outside of the Middle East, driven by expansions in Argentina and Algeria. Concurrently, the North American market is recovering. This allows Halliburton to push pricing while absorbing extra capacity. The company is even redeploying North American equipment to international markets to secure higher margin term contracts.

The bear case centers on fragile geography. The Middle East conflict remains a persistent drag on their largest international segment. This prevents full utilization and dampens overall international growth figures. Additionally, while North America is recovering, the market remains highly competitive.

Finn's scores reflect a middle ground. Valuation and financial health offer support, and Halliburton maintains its goal to return over 50% of annual free cash flow to shareholders. However, performance metrics remain challenged until the Middle East normalizes.

Jul 2026Q2 2026 results showed North American operations stabilizing to flat year-over-year revenue. International operations grew 6%, and management guided for strong growth outside the Middle East.
Apr 2026Halliburton's 2026 outlook improved. Management expects international activity to grow in the mid-to-high single digits, led by Latin America, while North America shows early signs of recovery.
Feb 2026The 2025 Form 10-K showed weak 2025 geography, but management's first 2026 view was less negative. International revenue was expected to be flat to up modestly, led by Latin America.
Oct 2025Management guided to full-year revenue declines in both North America and international markets. Middle East and Asia weakness accelerated because of reduced activity in Saudi Arabia.
Jul 2025Q2 2025 showed wider pressure, with total revenue down 6% year over year. International revenue also declined, weakening the main offset to North America softness.
Apr 2025Q1 2025 weakened the case because North America revenue fell 12% and international revenue fell 2%. Latin America was especially weak, with revenue down 19%.
Feb 2025The 2024 Form 10-K muted the bull case by guiding for flat 2025 international revenue and lower North America revenue. It also added a material IRS dispute risk tied to the Baker Hughes termination fee.
Nov 2024The company lowered its 2024 international growth outlook to mid to high single digits. It also made a cybersecurity incident a material risk factor.
02 Business model

Paid when producers spend

Halliburton makes money when oil and gas companies spend on wells. Its customers include major oil companies, national oil companies, and independent producers. Halliburton helps them locate reservoirs, drill wells, complete wells, and improve production after the well starts flowing.

The business has two operating segments. Completion and Production handles work such as cementing, stimulation, intervention, pressure control, artificial lift, and completion products. Drilling and Evaluation handles drilling tools, drilling fluids, software, testing, wireline, and well placement.

This model can produce strong cash when producers are active, but it is tied to customer budgets. If oil and natural gas prices fall, producers often cut drilling and completion work. That can pressure both revenue and pricing, especially in North America.

Management is trying to make the cycle easier to handle. Its priorities include international growth, more technology in North America, digital and automation tools, and returning more than 50% of annual free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases.

03 Product portfolio

Tools across the well life

Cash cow

Completion and Production

This is Halliburton's larger segment. During Q2 2026, the company completed the sale of a portion of its specialty chemical business within this unit.

Steady

Drilling and Evaluation

This segment offers solutions for reservoir modeling, drilling, fluids management, and wellbore placement. It provides steady international project work.

Steady

Stimulation and pressure pumping

These services help open rock so oil and gas can flow. They are critical in North America, where activity is beginning to stabilize.

Growth engine

Completion tools

Completion tools help finish wells so they can produce. They remain a bright spot in offshore and Latin American markets.

Growth engine

Drilling tools, fluids, and well placement

These offerings help customers drill more accurately and manage the wellbore. Strength is driven by international drilling activity.

Option

Digital and automation

Halliburton is investing in systems such as automated well-construction tools and digital software to help customers cut time and waste.

04 Business segments

Two engines, one cycle

Completion and Production56%modest
Drilling and Evaluation44%modest

Segment mix is based on recent 2026 reporting. Geographic exposure matters heavily: Q2 2026 International revenue was $3.4 billion, while North America revenue was $2.3 billion.

05 Risk factors

What could break the recovery

Middle East conflict spreads or lasts

High impact · Medium odds

The Middle East conflict remains a persistent drag on Halliburton's largest international segment. Disruptions prevent full utilization and limit overall growth. Any escalation could further delay the return of normalized activity in the region.

We watchTrack Middle East and Asia revenue growth, management comments on work cancellations, and geopolitical developments.

North America recovery fades

Medium impact · Medium odds

North America revenue was $2.3 billion in Q2 2026, which is flat year over year. While this is an improvement from previous declines, the market remains highly competitive. If customers keep tight budgets or pricing stays weak, earnings growth could stall.

We watchWatch North America revenue, U.S. land activity, pricing comments, and signs that customers are reducing calendar white space.

Oil and gas prices cut customer budgets

High impact · Medium odds

Halliburton's activity depends on upstream spending by oil and gas producers. Lower oil or natural gas prices often lead customers to delay drilling and completion work. That can hurt utilization, pricing, and margins.

We watchMonitor WTI, Brent, Henry Hub natural gas, rig counts, and producer budget updates.

IRS Baker Hughes tax dispute

Medium impact · Low odds

The IRS wants to reclassify the $3.5 billion Baker Hughes termination fee paid in 2016 from an ordinary expense to a capital loss. Halliburton estimates an unfavorable outcome could mean about $640 million of cash taxes due, plus interest. The company is in the IRS administrative appeals process.

We watchWatch for updates on the IRS administrative appeal, any court filing, or a change in tax reserve language.

Cybersecurity disruption

Medium impact · Medium odds

Halliburton disclosed that an unauthorized third party accessed systems in 2024, took information, and caused business disruption. The company added cyber risk as a material risk factor. A larger incident could affect operations, costs, and customer trust.

We watchLook for new cyber disclosures, litigation, regulatory action, or unusual system-related operating costs.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Halliburton actually do?

Halliburton provides products and services used to find, drill, complete, and produce oil and gas wells. It is paid by energy producers when they spend on exploration, development, and production work.

Why did the Halliburton thesis improve in Q2 2026?

North American operations stabilized to flat year-over-year revenue, and management guided for low double-digit growth in international markets outside of the Middle East.

What is Halliburton's biggest risk right now?

The biggest watch item is Middle East disruption. Conflict in the region is limiting growth and preventing full equipment utilization.

Does Halliburton return cash to shareholders?

Yes. Management has a framework to return over 50% of annual free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases.

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