Harmony advances its copper pivot despite new environmental hurdles
- Harmony still gets over 90% of current production from South African gold.
- Management now targets copper at about 40% of production by FY35.
- The MAC Copper deal added the CSA copper mine, which now shows a clear pathway to 40,000 tonnes of copper.
- Copper mineral reserves increased by 71% to 4 million tonnes due to Eva Copper and CSA coming into the mix.
- An endangered species issue at Eva Copper requires a staged execution strategy.
Gold cash funds copper
Harmony is trying to change what kind of miner it is. Today it is still mainly a South African gold miner. By FY35, management wants copper to be about 40% of production, using Eva Copper, MAC Copper, and Wafi-Golpu. The inclusion of Eva and CSA has recently pushed copper mineral reserves up 71% to 4 million tonnes.
The bull case is simple. Strong gold mines such as Mponeng and Moab Khotsong throw off cash while gold prices are high. That cash can help fund long-life copper assets, which could lower Harmony's cost curve and reduce its reliance on deep South African gold mines. The MAC Copper acquisition brought the CSA copper mine online, and the first vent raise has now successfully holed, establishing a clear pathway to 40,000 tonnes of production.
The bear case is execution. Harmony is in a heavy spending cycle and carries about ZAR 2.1 billion in contingent liabilities from recent deals. Eva Copper requires a staged execution due to an endangered species issue. Wafi-Golpu still needs its Special Mining Lease and mine development contract. Moab Khotsong is also expected to fall from 6 tonnes to 4 tonnes of gold output between 2027 and 2031 because project timing left a production gap.
This is a real transition story. If copper projects arrive on time and CSA integrates well, Harmony can look more global and lower cost. If permits slip, environmental issues delay Eva, or gold margins cool before copper cash flow arrives, the stock can quickly look too dependent on old mines.
Deep mines, tailings, and projects
Harmony makes most of its money by mining and selling gold. In fiscal 2024, it sold 48,222 kilograms of gold, equal to about 1.6 million ounces. The company also processes old mine waste, called tailings, where small amounts of gold are recovered from material mined years ago.
Its cost base is heavy. Mining needs labor, power, equipment, explosives, contractors, and ongoing development work. Harmony said cash costs are about 80% to 85% of total costs, excluding impairments and some other items, and labor is usually 55% to 60% of production costs.
The model works best when gold prices are high, the South African rand is weak against the U.S. dollar, and mines hit planned grades. It breaks when shafts lose flexibility, hoisting limits hold back ore, power prices rise faster than planned, or safety stoppages cut production while fixed costs keep running.
Copper is the attempted fix. Eva Copper, MAC Copper, and Wafi-Golpu would add longer-life, more global production. But those projects need permits, capital, contractors, and time before they can replace the risk of deep South African gold.
What Harmony sells
South African underground gold
This is the core of Harmony today. Mines such as Mponeng and Moab Khotsong provide high-grade production, but deep mining brings safety, labor, power, and shaft bottleneck risk.
Mine Waste Solutions
This tailings operation recovers gold from old mine waste. Harmony fulfilled its Franco-Nevada streaming obligations in 2024, so future gold revenue from this operation is based on quoted market prices.
Hidden Valley gold and silver
Hidden Valley gives Harmony exposure outside South Africa in Papua New Guinea. It also produces silver, which is a small byproduct revenue stream.
Eva Copper
Eva is a planned Australian copper project. Management expects first copper in 2028, though an endangered species issue currently requires a staged execution strategy and regulatory engagement.
CSA copper mine from MAC Copper
Harmony acquired MAC Copper in 2025, taking over the CSA underground copper mine near Cobar. The first vent raise has successfully holed, establishing a pathway to 40,000 tonnes of copper production.
Wafi-Golpu
Wafi-Golpu is the largest copper-gold prize in the portfolio, but it is still delayed. Harmony still needs the Special Mining Lease and mine development contract before the project can move toward a final investment decision.
Current production mix
The mix below uses fiscal 2024 gold sold by disclosed reportable operations. It does not yet include MAC Copper, because that acquisition closed after fiscal 2024.
What could break the plan
Eva Copper environmental delays
High impact · Medium oddsAn endangered species issue at the Eva Copper site has forced Harmony into a staged execution strategy. Construction continues on precleared areas while management engages regulators on further clearing. If regulators halt work, the 2028 first copper target will slip.
Wafi-Golpu permit and reputation risk
High impact · Medium oddsWafi-Golpu remains delayed because Harmony still needs the Special Mining Lease and mine development contract. The project also faces reputational and possible legal risk after an August 2025 OECD Examiner report found certain activities appeared not to align with OECD Guidelines in some areas.
Contingent liability burden
Medium impact · High oddsHarmony carries around ZAR 2.1 billion in contingent liabilities tied to its recent acquisitions, including Mponeng, Eva, and CSA. These obligations could weigh on cash flow during a heavy capital expenditure cycle.
Deep mine bottlenecks
Medium impact · Medium oddsDeep underground mines can lose production for reasons that are hard to fix quickly. Harmony has already flagged hoisting capacity constraints at Doornkop and contractor shortages at Moab Khotsong and Mponeng. Safety stoppages, lower grades, or shaft limits can cut ounces while many costs stay fixed.
Gold price, rand, and power squeeze
High impact · Medium oddsMost revenue still comes from gold, and most South African costs are in rand. Harmony benefits when the gold price is strong and the rand is weak, but margins can shrink if gold falls, the rand strengthens, or power costs rise. Eskom's tariff increases steadily push up operating costs.
In one breath
Is Harmony Gold mainly a gold company or a copper company?
Today it is mainly a gold company. Management wants copper to become about 40% of production by FY35 through Eva Copper, MAC Copper, and Wafi-Golpu.
Why does the MAC Copper deal matter for Harmony?
MAC Copper gives Harmony an operating copper mine in Australia, the CSA mine. It makes the copper pivot more real because Harmony now owns producing copper exposure, not only future projects.
What is the biggest permit risk for Harmony?
Wafi-Golpu is the key permit risk. Harmony still needs the Special Mining Lease and mine development contract before the project can move toward a final investment decision.
Why is South Africa still important to the Harmony thesis?
Over 90% of current production still comes from South African gold operations. These mines fund the transition, but they also bring deep-mine, power, labor, and currency risk.
Sources and research notes
This page combines Finn's company research with public filings and other cited materials. The thesis is reviewed when material company information changes; Finn Scores use the latest available scoring data.
- Thesis reviewed
- September 6, 2026
- Score data
- September 6, 2026
- Reviewed by
- Shivam Bharuka
Comparable Gold companies
Companies near Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited in Finn's Gold industry ranking.
