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IVZ Asset Management · Investment manager · ETFs · Global asset manager · Thesis updated August 5, 2026

QQQ rebounds to revive growth despite active equity weakness

01 Running thesis

A massive passive rebound offsets active pain

Invesco's second quarter of 2026 demonstrated the power of its passive franchise. The firm reached a record $2.5 trillion in AUM, powered by $45.1 billion in net long-term inflows. The standout story was the flagship QQQ product. After raising concerns with a $10.8 billion outflow in the first quarter, QQQ came roaring back with $14.0 billion in net inflows, helped by new cross-listings in Hong Kong and Tokyo.

The bull case rests on this scale and the operating leverage it provides. The firm's adjusted operating margin expanded to 37.5 percent, proving that even as clients shift toward lower-fee passive products, Invesco can grow earnings if the volume is large enough. The business is also getting simpler, with the completion of the Canadian divestiture and progress on paying down debt.

The bear case remains focused on the structural mix shift. While passive assets surge, the high-fee Fundamental Equities segment continues to bleed, posting $7.7 billion in net outflows due in part to institutional liquidations. This dynamic drove the firm's net revenue yield down to 22.0 bps by the end of the quarter. Invesco has to run faster on AUM just to keep revenues flat.

Jul 2026Q2 2026 results showed a major rebound for QQQ, which gathered $14.0 billion in net inflows. Adjusted operating margin expanded to 37.5 percent despite ongoing active equity outflows.
May 2026The Q1 2026 Form 10-Q made the thesis more negative. QQQ posted $10.8 billion of net long-term outflows, Fundamental Equities had another $2.4 billion of outflows, and net revenue yield fell to 22.9 bps.
Apr 2026Q1 earnings showed strong total net long-term inflows of $21.8 billion, but new direct Nasdaq-100 ETF competition raised the risk around QQQ. Management argued that QQQ's scale, liquidity, and brand still matter.
Feb 2026The 2025 Form 10-K added a clearer risk tied to AI-related market weakness and Nasdaq-100 products such as QQQ. It also confirmed full-year Fundamental Equities outflows of $21.1 billion.
Jan 2026Invesco completed the QQQ conversion in December 2025, making QQQ a direct revenue contributor. The firm also simplified its business with Intelliflo, India, and Canada transactions.
Nov 2025The Q3 2025 Form 10-Q showed record AUM and strong net inflows, but the same mix problem remained. Lower-fee passive products grew while higher-fee Fundamental Equities stayed in outflow.
Oct 2025Q3 2025 earnings showed record AUM and the strongest quarterly net long-term inflows since 2021. Progress in private markets and the planned QQQ conversion supported the bull case.
Aug 2025The Q2 2025 Form 10-Q confirmed record AUM but also showed continued fee pressure from product mix. A Fundamental Equities reorganization added near-term cost and execution risk.
02 Business model

Fees rise and fall with client money

Invesco makes most of its money by charging investment management fees on AUM. If markets rise or clients add money, AUM usually grows. If markets fall or clients redeem, fees can fall fast.

Not all assets are equal. Active equity funds and some specialty strategies tend to charge more. Passive ETFs, index funds, and cash products often charge less. That is why Invesco can grow AUM to record levels and still feel profit pressure if the new money comes into lower-fee products.

The firm is trying to simplify. It sold Intelliflo, sold a majority interest in its Indian asset management business, and completed its move to a capital-light partnership model in Canada with CI Global Asset Management. These moves should make the business cleaner, but they do not solve the key question: can Invesco protect high-value franchises while client demand keeps shifting to cheaper products?

QQQ is the swing factor. After its December 2025 conversion from a unit investment trust to an open-end ETF, it started generating revenue for Invesco. Its sharp rebound in flows during Q2 2026 helped validate the strategy.

03 Product portfolio

The products that matter most

Cash cow

QQQ

QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 and is one of Invesco's flagship products. It rebounded strongly with $14.0 billion in net inflows in Q2 2026, bolstered by new cross-listings in Asia.

Growth engine

ETFs and Index

This area remains a major source of client demand, excluding QQQ. In Q2 2026, ETFs and Index reported strong continued inflows.

Steady

Fundamental Fixed Income

Fixed income helps diversify the asset base, with SMAs growing 23 percent organically in the recent quarter.

Steady

Fundamental Equities

This is the long-running weak spot, even though it remains a large capability. The segment posted $7.7 billion of net long-term outflows in Q2 2026.

Growth engine

China JV

The China joint venture continues to bring in assets and remains a bright spot for international growth.

Option

Private Markets

Invesco is building private credit and other private markets products, advancing through partnerships with Barings and LGT Capital Partners.

Steady

Global Liquidity

This is mainly money market funds. These products gathered $16.9 billion in net inflows in Q2 2026 as investors sought yield.

04 Business segments

Retail still dominates assets

Retail channel71%modest
Institutional channel29%flat

This mix uses Invesco's Q2 2026 ending AUM by channel from the Form 10-Q.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Fee pressure keeps grinding

High impact · High odds

Net revenue yield fell to 22.0 bps by the end of Q2 2026. This means Invesco is earning less revenue per dollar of average AUM. AUM growth helps less if the new money flows into lower-fee products.

We watchNet revenue yield excluding performance fees.

Fundamental Equities liquidations

Medium impact · High odds

Fundamental Equities had $7.7 billion of net long-term outflows in Q2 2026, driven by idiosyncratic institutional liquidations. If active equity outflows do not moderate, Invesco will continue to lose higher-fee assets.

We watchQuarterly Fundamental Equities net long-term flows.

Nasdaq-100 and AI concentration hurts AUM

High impact · Medium odds

Invesco's 10-K warns that a decline in companies tied to AI trends, including names in the Nasdaq-100 Index, could hurt AUM and revenue for products such as QQQ. A tech selloff can cut AUM even before any client leaves.

We watchNasdaq-100 performance and QQQ average AUM.

QQQ moat under competitive attack

High impact · Medium odds

Nasdaq licensed the Nasdaq-100 index to two more U.S.-listed ETF providers in early 2026. If lower-cost rivals take share, Invesco could see margin pressure on its most important growth engine.

We watchQQQ net long-term flows and market share versus new Nasdaq-100 ETF rivals.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

How does Invesco make money?

Invesco charges fees to manage client assets. The fee is usually a percentage of AUM, so market moves, client flows, and product mix all affect revenue.

Why is QQQ so important to Invesco?

QQQ is Invesco's flagship Nasdaq-100 ETF and became a direct revenue contributor after its December 2025 conversion to an open-end ETF. Its flows are a major driver of the firm's growth narrative.

Is Invesco growing or shrinking?

Overall AUM grew to a record $2.470 trillion at the end of Q2 2026, and the firm had $45.1 billion of net long-term inflows. However, the mix is shifting from higher-fee active equity to lower-fee passive products.

What should investors watch next?

Watch QQQ flows, especially from the new Asian cross-listings, Fundamental Equities flows, and net revenue yield. A rebound in active flows would support the bull case.

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