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NEU Specialty Chemicals · Specialty chemicals · Defense materials · Cash generator · Thesis updated September 13, 2026

Pricing power masks falling volume in the core business

01 Running thesis

Pricing power and rocket growth

NewMarket is leaning heavily on its pricing power. The core Petroleum Additives business reported a rebound in the second quarter of 2026. Sales grew to $676 million from $654 million a year earlier. The company achieved this by adding surcharges to offset rising costs from Middle East supply chain disruptions.

However, the second quarter 10-Q revealed a key weakness. Underlying product shipment volumes actually decreased 3.8 percent worldwide. This means the revenue growth was entirely driven by higher prices, rather than more customers buying more products. A business cannot rely on price hikes to cover shrinking volumes forever.

The Specialty Materials segment offset some of this concern. After a weak first quarter caused by a bad product mix, segment operating profit bounced back to $22 million in Q2 2026. This doubled the $11 million reported in the same period last year. It confirms that the defense business is fundamentally strong, though investors must accept highly unpredictable quarter-to-quarter results.

Jul 2026▼The Q2 2026 10-Q revealed that Petroleum Additives revenue growth was driven entirely by higher prices, while actual shipment volumes declined 3.8 percent worldwide.
Jul 2026▲Q2 2026 earnings showed a strong profit rebound. Specialty Materials operating profit doubled year over year to $22 million.
Apr 2026→Management said shipments improved late in Q1, which slightly softened the concern around the 6.9 percent Petroleum Additives volume drop.
Apr 2026▼The Q1 2026 10-Q showed weaker core volumes and a sharp Specialty Materials profit drop. Petroleum Additives shipments fell 6.9 percent, while Specialty Materials operating profit fell to $12.4 million.
Feb 2026→The 2025 10-K confirmed the split thesis. Petroleum Additives volumes fell 4.9 percent for the year, but NewMarket also planned up to $100 million to expand AMPAC capacity by more than 50 percent.
Oct 2025▼Q3 2025 increased worry about both engines. Petroleum Additives volume fell 4.1 percent in the quarter, and Specialty Materials margin dropped sharply because of shipment timing.
Jul 2025→Q2 2025 showed Specialty Materials could be profitable, with a 25 percent operating margin. The core Petroleum Additives segment still had a 2.5 percent volume decline.
Apr 2025▲Q1 2025 gave the first clear sign of high AMPAC earnings power, with Specialty Materials operating profit of $23.2 million. NewMarket also announced a major AMPAC capacity investment.
02 Business model

Additives fund the rocket bet

NewMarket sells chemicals that help fuels and lubricants perform better. Customers include global, national, and independent oil companies. This is the Petroleum Additives segment. It remains the company's main source of sales and profit.

The business works when NewMarket keeps long customer ties, sells technical products, and manages raw material costs. It struggles when customers buy less, competitors take share, or raw material swings squeeze margins before pricing catches up.

In January 2024, NewMarket added Specialty Materials through the AMPAC acquisition. AMPAC makes critical materials used mainly in solid rocket motors for space launch and military defense. Calca, acquired in October 2025, added Ultra Pure and high-purity hydrazine propellants.

This gives NewMarket a second growth path tied to defense and space demand. The segment can be lumpy because shipment timing and product mix change reported profit sharply from quarter to quarter.

03 Product portfolio

What NewMarket sells

Cash cow

Lubricant Additives

These additives improve engine oils and industrial lubricants. They are part of the core Petroleum Additives segment.

Steady

Fuel Additives

These products improve fuel performance. They are a smaller but stable part of the core business.

Growth engine

AMPAC specialty materials

AMPAC makes critical materials used mainly in solid rocket motors. NewMarket expects to bring new ammonium perchlorate capacity online in late 2026.

Option

High-purity hydrazine

Calca added Ultra Pure and high-purity hydrazine to the Specialty Materials segment. These are mission-critical propellants for aerospace and defense uses.

04 Business segments

Q2 mix is still additives-heavy

Petroleum Additives91%declining
Specialty Materials9%modest

Segment mix uses Q2 2026 reported net sales of $676 million for Petroleum Additives and $67 million for Specialty Materials.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Core additive volume keeps falling

High impact · High odds

Petroleum Additives revenue grew in Q2 2026 solely due to surcharges while actual volumes dropped 3.8 percent. If structural shipment volumes continue to decline over time, profits will eventually slide once pricing power peaks.

We watchManagement commentary in the upcoming 10-Q regarding actual shipment volumes versus price-driven revenue.

AMPAC margins stay unpredictable

Medium impact · High odds

Specialty Materials profit is highly volatile due to shipment timing and product mix. While Q2 was strong, future quarters could see sudden margin compression similar to Q1 2026.

We watchSpecialty Materials operating profit and operating margin in each 2026 quarter.

Defense and space funding shifts

Medium impact · Medium odds

A large part of Specialty Materials revenue comes from U.S. government contractors and subcontractors. These programs depend on government priorities and annual appropriations. Contracts can also face early termination for convenience.

We watchDefense budget decisions, contractor demand, and any disclosed contract delays or cancellations.

AMPAC expansion misses plan

Medium impact · Medium odds

NewMarket is investing heavily to expand AMPAC capacity. That project supports the Specialty Materials growth case. Delays, cost overruns, or weaker demand would reduce the payoff.

We watchCompany updates on whether the capacity expansion remains on track and on budget for completion by late 2026.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does NewMarket Corporation do?

NewMarket makes petroleum additives used in fuels and lubricants. It also owns AMPAC and Calca, which make specialty materials and propellants used in space and defense applications.

What is the bull case for NEU?

The bull case is that NewMarket uses its pricing power to defend strong additive margins while growing revenue. At the same time, AMPAC grows significantly as demand for solid rocket motor materials rises and new capacity comes online.

What should investors watch next?

Watch whether the core business is growing through actual volume increases or just price hikes. Also watch whether the AMPAC capacity expansion stays on track for completion by the end of 2026.

07 Research standards

Sources and research notes

This page combines Finn's company research with public filings and other cited materials. The thesis is reviewed when material company information changes; Finn Scores use the latest available scoring data.

Thesis reviewed
September 13, 2026
Score data
September 27, 2026
Reviewed by
Shivam Bharuka
  1. NewMarket Q2 2026 Form 10-Q
  2. NewMarket Q2 2026 earnings transcript
  3. NewMarket Q1 2026 Form 10-Q
  4. NewMarket 2025 Form 10-K
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