Off-lease vehicle volumes are surging again

The supply wave accelerates

OPENLANE has been waiting for more leased cars to come back into wholesale channels. That turn is now clearly visible and gaining speed. In Q2 2026, commercial vehicle sales surged 39 percent. This was driven by higher off-lease returns and a new private label customer. Management expects off-lease volumes in the back half of the year to grow 20 to 25 percent based on maturity curves.

The bull case is simple. More maturing leases should create more cars for OPENLANE to sell. Lower lease equity helps too. If a consumer has negative equity, especially on an EV, they are far less likely to buy the car at lease end. More of those cars are moving deeper into the OPENLANE sales funnel.

The dealer side is also working well. U.S. dealer-to-dealer transactions grew 13 percent in Q2 2026. The AFC finance business adds another lever, because its roughly 15,000 independent dealer customers can become marketplace buyers and sellers over time.

The bear case is timing and credit. The expected volume growth assumes the auto market holds together. Tariffs, the conflict with Iran, higher fuel prices, and general car affordability issues could reduce the supply OPENLANE is counting on. AFC also faces possible yield pressure and higher loss costs as credit conditions normalize, though loss provisions did improve in Q2.

Fees plus dealer credit

OPENLANE is an asset-light wholesale vehicle marketplace. It does not need to own most of the cars that pass through its platform. It earns fees when vehicles are sold and sells services tied to inspections, logistics, titling, and private label remarketing.

The Marketplace segment is the core. It serves dealers and commercial sellers through digital auctions in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Commercial sellers include automakers, captive finance companies, rental car firms, fleets, and lenders.

The Finance segment is called AFC. AFC provides short-term, inventory-backed loans to independent dealers. This is called floorplan financing. A dealer borrows against the cars on its lot until they are sold. AFC helps dealers buy inventory and gives OPENLANE another way to pull dealers into the marketplace.

The model breaks if vehicle supply dries up, dealers stop buying, used car prices fall fast, or AFC loans go bad. Management has also been simplifying the company by selling non-core services to focus entirely on the digital auction and finance loops.

Tools around the auction

Marketplace drives the revenue

Segment mix is based on operating revenue from recent 2026 filings. Marketplace is calculated from total operating revenue less Finance revenue, representing an operating revenue mix.

What could break

In one breath