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PPG Specialty chemicals · Coatings · Cyclical · Global sales · Thesis updated August 5, 2026

Pricing power offsets inflation ahead of schedule

01 Running thesis

A successful price test

PPG is passing its 2026 inflation test. Management successfully covered 90% of cost of goods sold inflation with pricing in Q2. They expect to reach 100% coverage by the fourth quarter, which is a full quarter ahead of their original schedule. This matters because coatings companies win when they can raise prices faster than their raw material, energy, and logistics costs rise.

The bull case relies on specific pockets of strength offsetting weaker areas. Aerospace coatings grew by a double-digit percentage organically in Q2 2026, and customer backlogs stayed near $300 million. Packaging and industrial coatings also posted strong organic growth and market share gains, providing enough volume to support the higher prices.

The bear case centers on the automotive refinish business and European consumers. Automotive refinish remained a drag with a double-digit percentage decline in Q2 organic sales. While management notes that U.S. collision claims are starting to normalize, investors still need to see real volume growth return to this high-margin segment.

Over the next few quarters, the focus shifts to execution. PPG has proven it can raise prices without destroying immediate demand. Now, the company must maintain that balance while waiting for automotive refinish and European architectural markets to recover.

Jul 2026Q2 earnings showed PPG covering 90% of cost inflation with pricing, reaching its goals a quarter early. Aerospace maintained a $300 million backlog, though auto refinish volumes remained weak.
Apr 2026PPG reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $7.70 to $8.10 despite new mid-single-digit cost inflation. Aerospace and packaging stayed strong, and auto refinish recovery appeared earlier than expected.
Feb 2026The 2025 Form 10-K confirmed the new three-segment structure and a mixed 2026 setup. Aerospace and industrial share gains helped, while Europe and global industrial demand stayed challenged.
Jan 2026Management framed 2026 as a back-half recovery year. The first half was expected to be muted, with auto refinish normalization and stronger EPS growth pushed into the second half.
Oct 2025The outlook weakened when management said automotive refinish demand would stay pressured by low collision claims and distributor destocking. That made the first half of 2026 look harder.
02 Business model

Selling coatings into hard-to-switch markets

PPG makes coatings that protect, color, and finish products. Some go on planes, cars, cans, ships, bridges, factories, and buildings. The company earns money by selling these products to large manufacturers, repair shops, distributors, retailers, contractors, and consumers.

The best parts of the model are the markets where coatings are specified, tested, or tied into a customer process. Aerospace, automotive OEM, packaging, and refinish coatings can be hard to replace quickly because customers care about safety, color match, quality, and production speed.

The weak point is that PPG still sells into cyclical markets. When auto builds slow, homeowners delay paint projects, or factories cut orders, volume can fall. Raw materials also matter. If costs rise faster than prices, profit margins shrink.

03 Product portfolio

Where the coating demand comes from

Growth engine

Aerospace coatings

These coatings are used on aircraft and related parts. Q2 2026 organic sales grew by a double-digit percentage, and the order backlog remained near $300 million.

Growth engine

Packaging coatings

These products coat food and beverage cans. Q2 2026 organic sales grew by a double-digit percentage, continuing a trend of global market share gains.

Option

Automotive refinish coatings

These coatings are used when vehicles are repaired after collisions. Q2 2026 organic sales fell, but management notes the industry is beginning to normalize.

Steady

Automotive OEM coatings

These coatings are applied when automakers build new vehicles. Q2 2026 organic sales grew by a low single-digit percentage.

Cash cow

Global architectural coatings

These are paints sold for buildings through brands and retail or trade channels. EMEA reached an inflection point with positive organic sales in Q2.

Steady

Protective and marine coatings

These coatings protect ships, industrial assets, and infrastructure from harsh environments.

04 Business segments

Q2 2026 sales mix

Global Architectural Coatings24%modest
Performance Coatings36%modest
Industrial Coatings40%modest

Segment mix uses Q2 2026 net sales of approximately $4.5 billion: Global Architectural Coatings at $1.1 billion, Performance Coatings at $1.6 billion, and Industrial Coatings at $1.8 billion. The mix fluctuates with currency, seasonality, and project timing.

05 Risk factors

What could break the setup

Auto refinish recovery stalls

High impact · Medium odds

Automotive refinish is a high-value business, but Q2 2026 organic sales still fell by a double-digit percentage. Management says recovery trends are appearing in collision claims. The risk is that claims stay muted or distributors keep inventories tight through the end of the year.

We watchSecond-half 2026 automotive refinish organic volume growth.

Price hikes hurt future volume

High impact · Low odds

PPG covered 90% of inflation with pricing in Q2 and expects full coverage in Q4. While early execution was successful, pushing further price increases could cause customers to delay projects or seek cheaper alternatives in the future.

We watchQuarterly organic volume changes in the Global Architectural and Performance Coatings segments.

Europe and international demand stays weak

Medium impact · High odds

With about 70% of 2025 net sales recognized outside the United States, PPG is heavily exposed to global macro conditions. European consumer sentiment remains mixed, and geopolitical uncertainty can pause government or project spending in key markets like Mexico.

We watchEuropean architectural organic sales and project demand in Mexico.

Raw material costs spike again

Medium impact · Medium odds

PPG relies on petrochemical feedstocks and other raw materials. If conflict in the Middle East or supply chain disruptions push costs up again, the company would have to implement a new round of price increases, testing customer loyalty.

We watchManagement commentary on cost of goods sold inflation and gross margins.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does PPG Industries do?

PPG makes paints, coatings, and specialty materials. Its products are used on aircraft, cars, cans, buildings, ships, factories, and other surfaces that need color, protection, or performance.

Why does aerospace matter so much for PPG?

Aerospace coatings are one of PPG's clearest growth areas. In Q2 2026, aerospace organic sales grew by a double-digit percentage, and the company maintains a $300 million order backlog.

What is the biggest near-term risk for PPG stock?

The biggest near-term risk is the continued weakness in the automotive refinish segment. Investors are watching closely to see if volume finally returns to growth in the second half of 2026.

Is PPG mainly a U.S. company?

No. PPG is based in the United States, but about 70% of its 2025 net sales were recognized outside the United States. That makes regional demand, currency, and trade policy important.

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