Finn
SPXC Industrial Technology · HVAC · Data centers · Industrial software · Thesis updated August 11, 2026

Software margins shine while tariffs pressure cooling growth

01 Running thesis

Cooling demand meets rising costs

SPX is a two-part industrial company. HVAC is the larger piece, and it gets a steady lift from data center cooling. In Q2 2026, HVAC revenue grew 27.6% year over year. Organic HVAC growth hit 18.9%, mainly from higher cooling volumes tied to data centers.

The other piece, Detection and Measurement, is becoming much more profitable. Its Q2 2026 margin rose to 28.9% from 22.8% a year earlier. Management tied that to a better mix of products, including higher software-as-a-service revenue in transportation systems. SaaS means software sold by subscription, which often carries higher margins than hardware.

The bear case centers on execution and cost pressures. Section 232 tariffs hit HVAC margins in Q2 2026, validating prior concerns. SPX also has a large capacity buildout underway to meet data center demand. Start-up costs and inefficiencies from those expansions contributed to HVAC segment margins falling to 22.8%. If those costs linger, the data center upside could be muted.

Jul 2026SPX filed its Q2 2026 10-Q. D&M margins surged to 28.9%, but HVAC margins contracted to 22.8% due to tariffs and expansion costs. The company also disclosed a $430 million acquisition of Neptronic.
May 2026SPX filed its Q1 2026 10-Q, confirming 17.4% revenue growth and a 27.0% D&M margin. The update also added clearer tariff and Middle East risk language.
Apr 2026Q1 results beat expectations, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $8.30 to $8.50. HVAC grew 22.0%, while D&M benefited from more SaaS revenue.
Feb 2026Management guided to about 20% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026. The data center plan became more concrete, with about $160 million of capex tied to roughly $700 million of added capacity.
Oct 2025SPX raised guidance after strong Q3 results and added more than $1 billion of liquidity for organic growth and acquisitions. Olympus Max orders were tracking toward the $50 million 2025 booking goal.
Aug 2025Q2 2025 showed faster HVAC momentum and a larger data center cooling opportunity. HVAC backlog rose 19.5% sequentially, adding visibility into 2026 demand.
Feb 2025The KTS acquisition expanded the higher-margin communications technology platform inside D&M. Management said leverage remained within its target range after the deal.
Oct 2024Q3 2024 showed strong HVAC organic growth and margin expansion. D&M also improved margins even though reported revenue was held back by a prior project roll-off.
02 Business model

Buy, build, and deleverage

SPX makes money by selling engineered equipment and systems to commercial, industrial, and government markets. HVAC sells cooling, heating, air movement, and handling products. Detection and Measurement sells transportation systems, location and inspection tools, communication technologies, and aids to navigation.

The company also uses an acquisition flywheel. It buys related businesses, folds them into a segment, looks for cost and sales benefits, then uses cash flow to pay down debt and get ready for the next deal. Kranze Technology Solutions expanded the communications technology platform in early 2025. In July 2026, SPX spent $430 million to acquire Neptronic, further expanding its HVAC footprint.

That model works when acquired businesses fit well and the core markets stay healthy. It can break if SPX pays too much, misses integration targets, or adds debt right before demand cools. Recent margin pressure in HVAC shows that scaling physical capacity brings its own growing pains.

03 Product portfolio

Where the growth comes from

Growth engine

Data center cooling

Olympus Max is SPX's large-scale cooling product aimed at data centers. Management booked initial orders in 2025 for 2026 revenue and expects data center revenue to grow rapidly.

Growth engine

Engineered air movement

Air handling and movement systems serve healthcare, institutional, commercial, and data center customers. The $430 million Neptronic acquisition adds significant scale here.

Steady

Electric heat

Thermolec adds electric duct heating and expands SPX's HVAC reach in Canada. This gives the segment another path to serve commercial building markets.

Growth engine

Location and inspection software

The Location and Inspection platform added locate performance management software. This can bring more real-time data tools and more recurring SaaS revenue.

Cash cow

Transportation systems

Transportation systems sit inside Detection and Measurement. Higher SaaS revenue in this business helped lift D&M margin to 28.9%.

Option

Communication technologies

Kranze Technology Solutions scaled this platform in 2025. Middle East geopolitical conflicts have also created unexpected added demand for some communication technology products.

04 Business segments

Two segments, one bigger bet

HVAC72%growing fast
Detection and Measurement28%modest

Mix is based on approximate historical segment size, driven by Q2 2026 organic and inorganic growth rates. HVAC remains the clear majority.

05 Risk factors

What could break

Section 232 tariff hit

High impact · High odds

SPX says it mostly offset past tariffs through pricing and other actions. The new Section 232 tariffs materialized in Q2 2026 as explicit net tariff headwinds, actively compressing HVAC gross margins.

We watchListen for commentary on actual tariff costs, pricing actions, and HVAC gross margin recovery.

Capacity buildout delays

High impact · Medium odds

SPX is spending heavily to expand HVAC capacity for data centers. Inefficiencies and start-up costs tied to these expansions already hurt Q2 2026 margins. Further delays or poor startup efficiency could limit shipments.

We watchTrack capex, backlog conversion, startup costs, and HVAC margin stabilization in Q3 and Q4.

Acquisition digestion risk

Medium impact · Medium odds

SPX bought Thermolec and Crawford earlier in the year and closed a massive $430 million deal for Neptronic in July 2026. These deals add scale, but they also add integration work, purchase accounting, and debt usage.

We watchTrack HVAC organic growth versus acquisition growth, integration cost updates, and leverage after the Neptronic deal.

SaaS mix fades

Medium impact · Medium odds

The D&M margin jump to 28.9% is a key proof point for the bull case. If the SaaS mix in transportation systems falls back, that margin may not hold near its new high-water mark.

We watchWatch whether D&M segment margin stays above 25% and whether management details recurring revenue mix targets.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does SPX Technologies do?

SPX Technologies sells industrial equipment and systems through HVAC and Detection and Measurement. Its products include cooling systems, heating products, air handling, transportation systems, location tools, inspection software, communication technologies, and aids to navigation.

Why are data centers important to SPX?

Data centers need large cooling systems to keep servers running. SPX's Olympus Max product targets that demand, driving significant organic growth within the HVAC segment.

Why did Detection and Measurement margins improve?

In Q2 2026, D&M margin rose to 28.9%. SPX said the improvement came from a better product mix, including more higher-margin SaaS revenue in transportation systems and cost optimization efforts.

What is the biggest near-term risk for SPX?

The clearest near-term risks are Section 232 tariffs and capacity expansion inefficiencies. Both issues actively compressed HVAC margins in Q2 2026.

Get started with Finn today