SUZ Materials · Pulp · Brazil · Exporter · Thesis updated August 16, 2026

Low-cost pulp giant battles price swings and inflation

Written by Finn ResearchReviewed by Shivam BharukaReviewed August 16, 2026

Suzano is the world leader in eucalyptus pulp, with 14.5 million tons of annual installed capacity.
Cerrado lifted pulp sales volume 15% to 12.49 million tons in 2025, helping offset weaker prices.
Average pulp net price fell 16% to US$542 per ton in 2025, showing how exposed profits are to the cycle.
Paper revenue grew 25% to R$12.3 billion in 2025, helped by 19% volume growth.
The July 2026 Arbex closing adds a major integration test while the company manages rising logistics and resin costs.

01 Running thesis

Scale helped, prices still ruled

The bull case starts with cost. Suzano grows eucalyptus in Brazil, where trees mature in about seven years. That gives the company cheap wood, huge scale, and one of the lowest pulp cost bases in the world.

Cerrado is the main proof point. The new Ribas do Rio Pardo mill added 2.55 million tons of annual pulp capacity after it was completed in July 2024. In 2025, Suzano pulp sales volume rose 15% to 12.49 million tons, which helped keep pulp revenue nearly flat at R$37.8 billion even though average pulp price fell 16% to US$542 per ton.

The bear case is also clear. Pulp is a commodity, which means buyers care most about price and quality. If global supply keeps growing faster than demand, especially in China, Suzano can sell more tons and still earn less per ton. Furthermore, input cost inflation for resins and logistics creates a drag on margins.

The paper and tissue push gives Suzano another path. Paper revenue rose 25% to R$12.3 billion in 2025, with volume up 19%. The Arbex closing in July 2026 pushes this forward, but pulp remains the main profit engine.

Aug 2026→Q2 2026 earnings confirmed the Arbex closing on July 1. Management highlighted new inflationary risks tied to the Middle East conflict affecting resin and logistics, plus potential El Nino weather disruptions.

Mar 2026→Suzano 2025 Form 20-F showed Cerrado volume kept pulp revenue roughly flat despite a 16% fall in average pulp price. Paper revenue rose 25%.

Apr 2025▲The 2024 Form 20-F confirmed that the Cerrado Project was completed in July 2024, adding 2.55 million tons of annual pulp capacity. Pulp net sales rose 22.5% in 2024.

Feb 2025▲Management said the Ribas mill finished its learning curve in six months and became the lowest cash-cost asset. The company also reported double-digit price increases on major U.S. packaging contracts.

02 Business model

Trees to ships to shelves

Suzano owns much of the chain. It plants eucalyptus, harvests wood, makes pulp, uses some pulp inside its own paper mills, and sells the rest as market pulp to paper producers around the world.

Most revenue still comes from market pulp. Customers are paper, packaging, tissue, and specialty paper makers that lack sufficient pulp of their own. Suzano wins when its low wood cost and rail-to-port network let it sell at a profit while higher-cost mills struggle.

The downstream business is growing. Suzano sells printing and writing paper, paperboard, cupstock, liquid packaging board, tissue, and fluff pulp. The Neve toilet paper brand and other tissue assets move Suzano closer to consumers and can smooth some pulp price swings.

This model breaks when commodity prices fall too far, when shipping costs spike, or when forest supply is tight. The company must also spend heavily to maintain mills, forests, logistics, and environmental licenses.

03 Product portfolio

What Suzano sells

Cash cow

Eucalyptus market pulp

This is the core business. Suzano sells short-fiber hardwood pulp to paper and tissue makers worldwide.

Steady

Printing and writing paper

Suzano is a major Brazilian producer of office and graphic paper. This relies more on domestic demand than the export pulp business.

Growth engine

Paperboard and packaging

Packaging demand is one of the stronger long-term paper markets. Suzano has been adding assets and contracts in this area.

Growth engine

Tissue and Neve

Suzano sells tissue products to consumers, including the Neve toilet paper brand in Brazil. This brings exposure to branded goods rather than commodity pulp alone.

Option

Fluff pulp and Eucafluff

Fluff pulp goes into absorbent hygiene products. The Eucafluff line provides a specialty product that can carry better margins than standard pulp.

Option

Liquid packaging board and cupstock

These products serve cartons, cups, and food-service packaging. They fit the move toward higher-value paper products.

04 Business segments

Pulp still dominates

Pulp75%flat

Paper25%growing fast

The mix uses Suzano 2025 net sales from its Form 20-F: R$37.8 billion from pulp and R$12.3 billion from paper. Pulp is still about three quarters of reported segment sales.

05 Risk factors

What could go wrong

Pulp price slump

High impact · High odds

Suzano sold 15% more pulp volume in 2025, but average pulp net price still fell 16% to US$542 per ton. If new global capacity runs ahead of demand, Cerrado volume benefits could be erased by lower prices.

We watchAverage realized pulp price in US dollars per ton and management cash cost per ton.

China demand shock

High impact · Medium odds

China dictates global marginal pulp pricing. If Chinese paper mills slow their orders, the export-heavy model feels it quickly through lower pulp prices and weaker volumes.

We watchChinese pulp import demand, paper mill operating rates, and Suzano Asia sales commentary.

Forest and wood supply stress

Medium impact · Medium odds

A stronger El Nino season increases the likelihood of weather-related disruptions in key producing regions. This brings implications for wood availability and higher production costs.

We watchWood cost per ton, biological asset spending, and forest productivity metrics.

Input cost inflation

Medium impact · High odds

Management noted acute inflationary pressures related to the Middle East conflict. This specifically drives up resin and logistics costs, which squeeze margins.

We watchFreight and logistics costs, chemical input costs, and gross margin pressure.

Debt and capital intensity

Medium impact · Medium odds

Large pulp mills and forests are expensive. Projects often need heavy debt and years of spending. Foreign exchange moves can also affect debt because part of the balance sheet is tied to the U.S. dollar.

We watchNet leverage, capital spending guidance, free cash flow, and the Brazilian real versus the U.S. dollar.

06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Suzano make?

Suzano makes eucalyptus pulp, paper, packaging materials, tissue, and fluff pulp. Its main product is market pulp, which other companies use to make paper, tissue, and packaging.

Why is Suzano considered a low-cost pulp producer?

Brazilian eucalyptus grows fast, with trees maturing in about seven years. Suzano also has massive scale, owned forests, mills near rail lines, and access to export ports.

What is the Cerrado Project?

Cerrado is a major new pulp mill in Ribas do Rio Pardo, completed in July 2024. It added 2.55 million tons of annual eucalyptus pulp capacity and helped drive volume growth in 2025.

What is the biggest risk for Suzano stock?

The biggest risk is pulp pricing. In 2025, Suzano sold more pulp, but average pulp net price fell 16%, showing how quickly the cycle can hurt margins.

07 Research standards

Sources and research notes

This page combines Finn's company research with public filings and other cited materials. The thesis is reviewed when material company information changes; Finn Scores use the latest available scoring data.

Thesis reviewed: August 16, 2026
Score data: September 27, 2026
Reviewed by: Shivam Bharuka