Finn
KSS Retail · Department stores · Turnaround · Value retail · Thesis updated September 20, 2026

Sephora shrinks as a massive tariff refund buys time

01 Running thesis

A shifting turnaround story

The investment narrative for Kohl's has shifted. The bull case previously relied on the Sephora partnership to drive store traffic. In Q2 2026, Sephora sales fell 4% because key beauty brands expanded their distribution to other stores. Shoppers no longer need to visit Kohl's to find these items.

Bulls now point to stabilization in the core business and better cash flow. Total comparable sales improved to a 0.9% decline in Q2. A massive $150 million one-time tariff refund helped Kohl's reduce debt to its lowest level since 2007. The company also announced a $100 million share buyback.

The bear case warns that the tariff refund is a temporary fix. Without Sephora masking the declines in apparel, the core growth story remains weak. Management must prove that new beauty brands and a Babies R Us rollout can generate enough traffic for the holiday season. Recent filings also highlight new risks around ESG compliance costs and shifting tariff authorities.

Sep 2026▼The Q2 2026 10-Q formalized new margin risks, including evolving ESG compliance costs for climate reporting and the threat of new Section 122 tariffs.
Aug 2026→Q2 2026 showed a Sephora sales drop of 4% due to lost brand exclusivity. However, a $150 million tariff refund enabled debt reduction and a new $100 million share buyback.
Jun 2026▼Q1 2026 net sales fell a slower 1.7%, but Footwear dropped 8.4% and Accessories, including Sephora, also declined. Gross margin held at 39.9% and Moody's moved its outlook positive, but another net loss kept the thesis cautious.
Mar 2026▼Fiscal 2025 net sales fell 4.0%, with weakness across every line except Accessories. Management's fiscal 2026 outlook did not show a clear recovery.
Dec 2025▼Q3 2025 sales fell 2.8%, while Footwear and Children's remained weak. Accessories still grew, but the rest of the store did not show enough lift.
Sep 2025▼Q2 2025 net sales fell 5.1%, and core category weakness spread across the store. A Moody's downgrade added financial pressure.
Jun 2025▼Q1 2025 net sales fell 4.1%, with sharp drops in Women's and Children's. Accessories grew on Sephora, but it was not enough to offset the core decline.
02 Business model

Stores, brands, and partnerships

Kohl's makes money by selling moderately priced merchandise to U.S. shoppers. The company operates over 1,150 physical stores and an integrated e-commerce site. The physical stores matter because Kohl's uses them for shopping, online order pickup, and local returns.

The product mix relies on private and exclusive brands like Sonoma Goods for Life and LC Lauren Conrad. These lines usually offer better margins than national brands. Partnerships are also central to the strategy. Kohl's features Sephora beauty shops and is rolling out Babies R Us sections for gifts and accessories.

The Sephora partnership faces a major test. Management noted that expanded external distribution for key beauty brands hurt Q2 2026 sales. If customers can buy these products elsewhere, Kohl's loses a major traffic driver.

Kohl's also earns other revenue from private label credit card operations. A third party manages the credit risk, but Kohl's shares in the net risk-adjusted revenue.

03 Product portfolio

What Kohl's sells

Cash cow

Women's apparel

Women's is the largest category by historical sales volume. It serves as a core part of the everyday shopping mix for moderate-income families.

Steady

Accessories and Sephora

This line includes the Sephora shop-in-shop. It was a growth engine, but Q2 2026 sales fell 4% as key brands expanded to rival stores.

Steady

Men's apparel

Men's remains a large part of the store but continues to face pressure.

Steady

Home

Home goods posted a 1% gain in Q2 2026. This positive turn helps offset weakness in other departments.

Option

Children's and Baby

Kohl's is expanding its Babies R Us partnership in select stores. This move aims to generate incremental traffic for baby gifts.

Option

Footwear

Footwear is a heavy repair job. It improved by 500 basis points in Q2 2026 compared to Q1, showing early signs of life.

04 Business segments

One segment, six sales lines

Women's28%declining
Accessories including Sephora21%declining
Men's19%declining
Home12%flat
Children's10%flat
Footwear9%declining

Kohl's operates one reportable segment. The mix below uses Q1 2026 net sales as the baseline, as full category splits are updated periodically.

05 Risk factors

What could break the story

Sephora loses its exclusive draw

High impact · High odds

The Sephora partnership posted a 4% decline in Q2 2026. Management cited expanded distribution for key beauty brands. If shoppers can buy these items at other retailers, Kohl's loses its best tool for driving store visits.

We watchQuarterly Sephora sales growth and updates on new beauty brand introductions.

Tariff margins fade

High impact · High odds

A $150 million tariff refund boosted recent gross margins and cash flow. This one-time benefit will not repeat. Kohl's may face renewed margin pressure once this cash is fully absorbed, especially as the administration pivots to Section 122 tariffs.

We watchGross margin trends excluding one-time benefits and updates on Section 122 trade policy.

ESG compliance costs mount

Low impact · Medium odds

The Q2 2026 10-Q formalized risks regarding evolving state-level regulations on PFAS, packaging waste, and greenhouse gas reporting. These rules could drive operational costs higher.

We watchSelling, general, and administrative expenses related to regulatory compliance.

Footwear recovery stalls

Medium impact · Medium odds

Footwear improved sequentially in Q2 2026 but remains a laggard. The company needs this category to post positive growth by the holiday season. Bad inventory bets could force markdowns and erase recent progress.

We watchQuarterly Footwear comparable sales and inventory levels.

Middle-income shoppers pull back

Medium impact · High odds

Kohl's sells to a value-focused consumer. Inflation or weak wage growth can quickly reduce store trips and basket size. The business is highly sensitive to changes in disposable income.

We watchTotal comparable sales and transaction volume.
06 Quick answers

In one breath

Is Kohl's a department store?

Yes. Kohl's is a U.S. omnichannel retailer with physical stores and Kohls.com. It sells apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty, and home products.

Why does Sephora matter to Kohl's?

Sephora gives Kohl's a beauty category that can bring in shoppers who may not visit for apparel alone. The risk is that Q2 2026 Sephora sales fell 4%, showing the growth benefit is stalling.

What is the main problem at Kohl's right now?

Sales are still declining in core categories, and its Sephora growth engine has stalled due to lost brand exclusivity. The company relies on one-time tariff refunds for recent cash flow wins.

What would make the Kohl's story better?

The cleanest positive signs would be positive comparable sales, Footwear completing its recovery, and Sephora returning to growth with new brands.

07 Research standards

Sources and research notes

This page combines Finn's company research with public filings and other cited materials. The thesis is reviewed when material company information changes; Finn Scores use the latest available scoring data.

Thesis reviewed
September 20, 2026
Score data
September 27, 2026
Reviewed by
Shivam Bharuka
  1. Kohl's Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript
  2. Kohl's Q2 2026 Form 10-Q
  3. Kohl's Q1 2026 Form 10-Q
08 Explore the industry

Comparable Department Stores companies

Companies near Kohl's Corporation in Finn's Department Stores industry ranking.

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