NMR Financial Services · Japan · Wealth management · Investment banking · Thesis updated August 11, 2026

Nomura rides Japan's investing shift to record profits

Nomura achieved a 15.4% return on equity in the first quarter of fiscal 2027.
Wealth Management recurring revenue cost coverage reached 76%, highlighting improved stability.
Investment Management assets under management reached an all-time high of ¥156.4 trillion.
Management officially raised the 2030 return on equity target to a range of 10% to 12%.
Wholesale income hit its best quarter since 2010, though management warned of market shocks in the second half.

01 Running thesis

Japan's investing shift is paying off

Nomura is trying to become less of a trading house and more of a recurring fee money manager. That shift is working better than it has in years. Wealth Management posted record results driven by recurring revenues, and Investment Management assets under management reached an all-time high of ¥156.4 trillion. The Macquarie public asset management acquisition successfully added scale.

The stronger mix is showing up in group results. Nomura posted a 15.4% return on equity for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Having easily surpassed its previous goals ahead of schedule, management raised its 2030 return on equity target to a range of 10% to 12%. Wholesale also had its best quarter since 2010, heavily supported by a massive jump in equities revenue.

The bear case is that Nomura has not escaped market cycles. Wholesale is still a major revenue driver, and it can swing fast when rates, currencies, credit spreads, or deal markets move against the firm. Management specifically warned that market volatility is likely to increase in the second half of the year due to United States elections and shifting global monetary policy.

The next proof points are simple: keep asset inflows coming, manage second half market volatility profitably, and protect capital while risk-weighted assets grow.

Jul 2026▲Management officially raised the 2030 return on equity target to 10% to 12% after a strong first quarter. However, they also warned of heightened market volatility in the second half tied to global elections and monetary policy.

Jun 2026▲The FY2026 filing confirmed record progress across Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. It also raised the near-term risk bar, with United States tariff threats and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching 2.8%.

Apr 2026▲Fourth quarter results showed 10.1% return on equity and record strength in Wealth Management and Wholesale. Capital ratios stayed acceptable but not loose.

Jan 2026→Nomura closed the Macquarie public asset management acquisition on December 1, 2025, lifting Investment Management revenue to an all-time high. Laser Digital losses and regional weakness kept the risk view balanced.

Oct 2025→Wholesale Equities reached a record high, adding to the bull case. Phishing losses and a lower capital ratio kept the update from being clearly positive.

Jul 2025▼The first quarter showed the real cost of phishing compensation and Laser Digital market losses. It also showed that risk-weighted asset growth was starting to pressure capital buffers.

Jun 2025→The FY2025 filing formalized the new Banking Division and showed better Wholesale operating leverage. New cyber and regulatory issues kept the risk list longer.

Apr 2025▲Nomura announced the Macquarie public asset management deal and created a Banking Division. Both moves strengthened the plan to build more stable revenue.

02 Business model

Fees, advice, trading, and banking

Nomura makes money in four main ways. It advises and sells investment products to individuals in Wealth Management. It manages funds and other assets in Investment Management. It trades securities and advises companies in Wholesale. It also runs banking and trust banking functions through the new Banking Division.

The best part of the model is the shift toward steadier fees. Recurring revenue means fees that can repeat, such as management fees on funds or discretionary accounts. These are less jumpy than trading gains, and they help cover the fixed cost of branches, bankers, traders, systems, and compliance.

The harder part is that Nomura still has a large trading and investment banking engine. That business can earn a lot when clients hedge, rebalance, issue stock, borrow, or buy companies. It can also hurt results when markets freeze, rates move too fast, or clients delay deals.

03 Product portfolio

What Nomura sells

Growth engine

Wealth Management

This includes stocks, investment trusts, discretionary accounts, insurance, and workplace services. It is the core way Nomura benefits from Japanese households moving money from savings into investments.

Growth engine

Investment Management

Nomura runs public funds, balanced funds, global equity funds, defined contribution funds, and private or alternative assets. The Macquarie acquisition added scale in United States and European public asset management.

Cash cow

Wholesale Global Markets

This business trades fixed income, equities, securitized products, and other market products for clients. It can be very profitable, but it is also the most sensitive to rates and market stress.

Steady

Wholesale Investment Banking

Nomura advises on mergers and acquisitions, underwriting, financing, and equity solutions. Activity depends on client confidence and market windows.

Steady

Banking Division

This division uses banking and trust functions, including securities-backed loans, investment trust administration, and fund services. It is small today but adds another stable revenue source.

Option

Laser Digital

Laser Digital is Nomura's digital asset subsidiary. It has shown it can contribute profits, but recent market moves also showed that risk controls matter.

04 Business segments

Wholesale is still the biggest piece

Wholesale59%modest

Wealth Management25%modest

Investment Management13%growing fast

Banking3%modest

The mix uses fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 net revenue for Nomura's four operating divisions. Unallocated corporate and other items are excluded, so the table shows the operating business mix rather than total company revenue.

05 Risk factors

What could break the thesis

Macro volatility hits trading books

High impact · High odds

Management warned of increased volatility in the second half of the year due to United States midterm elections and shifting global monetary policy. Fast moves in global rates and currencies can create paper losses on bonds and hedges.

We watchQuarterly Global Markets net revenue and fixed income performance.

Wholesale resource constraints

Medium impact · Medium odds

The fast growth in the Equities business is pressuring resource allocation within the firm's self-funding framework. Capacity constraints could cap further upside if demand remains high and capital gets stretched.

We watchWholesale revenue-to-risk-weighted-asset ratio and common equity Tier 1 ratio.

Capital buffer gets squeezed

Medium impact · Medium odds

Common equity Tier 1 dropped over the past year and stabilized near 12.9%. That is still inside Nomura's 11% to 14% target range, but the cushion is thinner. More risk-weighted asset growth could limit buybacks or trading capacity.

We watchCommon equity Tier 1 ratio and capital return plans.

Operational and regulatory trust slips

Medium impact · Low odds

Retail phishing scams caused profit drag earlier, though management later said the impact was negligible after passkey rollout. Nomura also faced a suspension of government bond primary dealer entitlements after a penalty tied to past futures transactions.

We watchFraud compensation, passkey adoption, and regulatory updates.

06 Quick answers

In one breath

What does Nomura Holdings do?

Nomura is a Japanese financial services group. It helps individuals invest, manages assets, trades securities for clients, advises companies, and runs banking and trust services.

Why does Japan's savings to investment shift matter for Nomura?

Many Japanese households have kept large savings balances in cash or deposits. If more of that money moves into funds, advisory accounts, and securities, Nomura can earn more recurring fees.

Is Nomura safer now that it has more asset management revenue?

It is less dependent on trading than it used to be, but not free from market risk. Wholesale is still the largest operating revenue segment, so rate shocks, currency moves, and weak deal markets can still move results.